tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post112671046539129735..comments2024-02-03T10:37:28.343-05:00Comments on Madman of Chu: The Eight Percent SolutionMadman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-1127653898261029652005-09-25T09:11:00.000-04:002005-09-25T09:11:00.000-04:00I also don't see any evidence that,"Expecting an e...I also don't see any evidence that,<BR/><BR/>"Expecting an effective authority to emerge among the Palestinians before even a principle agreement on sovereignty exists is like expecting rain without clouds..."<BR/><BR/>Given that Israel has repeteadly offered to recognize a Palestinian state - and that the sticking points were related to territory, refugees, and the fate of Jerusalem - I fail to see why you think a principle agreement on sovereignty would be so important. Your opinions seems not to be shared by the PA itself, which is <A HREF="http://www.jnewswire.com/library/article.php?articleid=759" REL="nofollow">asking</A> for quite different things, not another interim agreement.alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00798779972194205640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-1127630178872874992005-09-25T02:36:00.000-04:002005-09-25T02:36:00.000-04:00Madman, "The vandalism of the abandoned synagogues...Madman, <BR/><BR/>"The vandalism of the abandoned synagogues in Gaza is no gauge of the prospects of Palestinian-Israeli cooperation...This last minute decision by the Cabinet was completely unfathomable..."<BR/><BR/>The vandalism of abandoned synagogues is, however, a gauge of the ability of the Palestinian police to resist throngs of militants. I brought up this incident not to point fingers, but simply to point out that relying on Palestinian institutions to protect Israeli citizens is completely unrealistic. Whether it will ever become realistic is, at best, unclear. <BR/><BR/>"Hoping that the Palestinians will develop institutions of governance is not what I suggested. Rather, I would propose that Israel genuinely cooperate with the Palestinian authority in establishing and expanding its control..."<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure that there is much Israel can do except stay out of the struggles between the PA and militant groups that resist its control. Any interference would likely be resented by both sides. Therefore, given the limited options for action available to "cooperate with the Palestinian authority in establishing and expanding its control," this option to me sounds essentially the same as hoping that the Palestinians will develop robust institutions. What, precisely, do you believe Israel should do in this regard, and why do you think it will make much of a difference?<BR/><BR/>P.S. I'm not sure that election-related uncertainty can be used to explain the failure of the Taba talks. Its fair to say that if any US president were to be presented with a negotiated end to the mideast conflict accepted by both sides, its hardly a tough decision to endorse it. As for the Israeli election, if the proposals at Taba were truly amenable to the Palestinians, their best bet would have been to agree - at worst, they would be no worse off is Sharon came into office, and at best a settlement might have aided Barak.alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00798779972194205640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-1127621828697823822005-09-25T00:17:00.000-04:002005-09-25T00:17:00.000-04:00Alex, The vandalism of the abandoned synagogues i...Alex,<BR/><BR/> The vandalism of the abandoned synagogues in Gaza is no gauge of the prospects of Palestinian-Israeli cooperation. The Israelis had wisely planned to demolish those structures along with every other building in those settlements, the Cabinet voted to circumvent those plans less than 24 hours before the final pullout. This last minute decision by the Cabinet was completely unfathomable, the synagogues were obviously going to come down at some time. If the Israelis wanted the Palestinian authorities to oversee the demolition in a calm, dignified manner they should have taken more than a day to work out and coordinate plans. <BR/><BR/>Those scenes are an object lesson in how critically Israel needs a genuine partner in the peace process, acting unilaterally and without warning is no way to foster the growth of robust institutions among the Palestinians. Expecting an effective authority to emerge among the Palestinians before even a principle agreement on sovereignty exists is like expecting rain without clouds, even more so when unilateral action on the part of the Israeli government persistently erodes the credibility of what Palestinian governing institutions do exist.<BR/><BR/>The Taba talks also don't really signify as an index of possibilities- they did not fail over disagreements on territory but over the uncertainties attendant upon regime change in Washington and upcoming Israeli elections. If the Sharon government had been willing to pick up the thread of the Taba talks they may well have led to a final settlement.<BR/><BR/>Hoping that the Palestinians will develop institutions of governance is not what I suggested. Rather, I would propose that Israel genuinely cooperate with the Palestinian authority in establishing and expanding its control- in the final analysis Israel's existence is as dependent upon the success of such a process as is the cause of Palestinian nationhood.Madman of Chuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-1127547309720717282005-09-24T03:35:00.000-04:002005-09-24T03:35:00.000-04:00From a news account describing the burning of Isra...From a <A HREF="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/apmideast_story.asp?category=1107&slug=Israel%20Gaza%20Synagogues" REL="nofollow">news account</A> describing the burning of Israeli synagogues in Gaza:<BR/><BR/>"Flames shot skyward from four abandoned synagogues in the Gaza Strip on Monday, as thousands of celebrating Palestinians thronged through former Jewish settlements and headed straight for the only buildings left standing....<STRONG>Helpless Palestinian police stood by and watched, admitting they were outnumbered by the crowds and had little motivation to stop them.</STRONG>"<BR/><BR/>This is despite the fact that policemen were ordered to stop the throngs.<BR/><BR/>Don't you think its a bit naive to believe things would be any different if the Israeli residents of the West Bank were placed under Palestinian sovereignty?<BR/><BR/>Who, exactly, would protect their safety? The same Palestinian police that cannot even protect the safety of their own citizens (see the execution-style <A HREF="http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/050908/2005090801.html" REL="nofollow">killing</A> of Moussa Arafat), who cannot stop militants from shelling <A HREF="http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L24116479.htm" REL="nofollow">Israeli</A> <A HREF="http://www.rednova.com/news/general/249395/palestinian_rocket_hits_israel/" REL="nofollow">cities</A> on a regular basis, who <A HREF="http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2005/09/20/build/world/35-choas-vexes.inc" REL="nofollow">cannot</A> <A HREF="http://www.cbc.ca/cp/world/050916/w091674.html" REL="nofollow">control</A> the actions of Hamas and Islamic Jihad - who as of writing this (Sept. 24) have prevented the Palestinian police from controlling Gaza's borders, and who stand helpless whenever faced against an angry crowd?<BR/><BR/>You write, <BR/><BR/>"The solution I propose would require such a complex set of institutional and legal arrangements that even if the process to implement it were started today one would have many months or years to observe outcomes in Gaza..."<BR/><BR/>I think that in the week since you have written your post there have been a few observations to make, and they are not terribly encouraging. <BR/><BR/>As for hoping that things will improve - that the Palestinians will develop a set of legal institutions that would make your idea work - at this point it is just wishful thinking. It is not at all clear whether it will ever happen or how long it would take. It is only clear that the Palestinians are quite far from that now. <BR/><BR/>In light of this, it seems like the 8% solution would be more practical. <BR/><BR/>P.S. Barak actually offered Palestinians 97% of the West Bank territory at the <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taba_summit" REL="nofollow">Taba Summit</A>, which they rejected. The current version of the separation wall would give Palestinians 93% of the West Bank. Given that it would leave the West Bank contiguous, and that over roughly 99.6% of the Palestinians would be on their side of the wall (Israeli government figure, it should be noted), i'm not sure that "insurmountable difficulties in communication" would be developed. I'm quite sure that if a comprehensive settlement requires the laying of some new roads, there are a number of interested parties who would be willing to pay.alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00798779972194205640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-1126984466731928852005-09-17T15:14:00.000-04:002005-09-17T15:14:00.000-04:00Dear Kate Marie, The solution I propose would requ...Dear Kate Marie,<BR/><BR/> The solution I propose would require such a complex set of institutional and legal arrangements that even if the process to implement it were started today one would have many months or years to observe outcomes in Gaza. On that score I don't see that anything that happens in Gaza will alter the raw demographic facts that I've outlined above. <BR/><BR/>As to the radicals you mention, it is impossible to surmise what effect the creation of a sovereign Palestinian nation with a substantive and effective government might have on their influence within the Palestinian community- the Sharon government's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza surely provides no gauge. If and when the Palestinian nation is a reality ordinary Palestinians' enthusiasm for "driving Israel into the sea" may fade very quickly. Israel will never accede to the creation of a Palestinian state that has offensive military capability, so once the Palestinian state is made it will always remain within the power of the Israeli army to "unmake" it if sufficiently provoked. Under those conditions support for the provocations of groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad may reach a low ebb among their own people. <BR/><BR/>The radicals among the Jewish settlers are another matter- their motivation to undermine the peace process will never be affected by the establishment of Palestinian nationhood- quite the contrary. In the long run I would argue that they posed the greatest threat to the success of a "Resident Alien" solution, as some might launch a terrorist campaign against the Palestinian government in order to "return Judea and Samaria" to Jewish rule.Madman of Chuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-1126981732127396152005-09-17T14:28:00.000-04:002005-09-17T14:28:00.000-04:00An interesting solution, Madman. My concern would...An interesting solution, Madman. My concern would be that the radicals on the Palestinian side who would "seize upon the situation to incite violence and subvert the peace" may prove too great in number (and in the percentage of the population which supports them) to be held in check by Palestinian forbearance and diplomacy. <BR/><BR/>Would you recommend waiting, for a reasonable period, to see what happens in Gaza? If the radicals can't be contained there, further attempts to solve the problem seem rather quixotic to me. But maybe -- since, as you say, the problem must be solved -- any honest attempt at a solution is worthwhile.Kate Mariehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01340271913937155230noreply@blogger.com