tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post8386008690570586946..comments2024-02-03T10:37:28.343-05:00Comments on Madman of Chu: The Fruits of DisengagementMadman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-19710974152410104292007-10-16T07:08:00.000-04:002007-10-16T07:08:00.000-04:00Dear Augustine, Thanks for your words of encoura...Dear Augustine,<BR/><BR/> Thanks for your words of encouragement again. You may be right that Iraq will ultimately partition. I don't think it will happen, as I don't think the current demography and geography of Iraq really admits of partition into three viable states, but I don't have a crystal ball and events could well prove me wrong. <BR/><BR/>From a US policy perspective I think that whether that is the direction Iraq is ultimately moving or not it is unwise for us to follow the Biden-Gelb plan. We have tried to set up a central government in Baghdad, and though that has (predictably, in my mind) produced very problematic results it would be foolish to try and scrap it now and hope that we will enjoy more success in setting up three regional governments, because it is a sure bet that we won't. In other words, everything we've touched in Iraq has turned sour, thus we should quite while we are behind and stop meddling overmuch.<BR/><BR/>I confess I haven't followed the press coverage of the 17th Party Congress closely. Hu Jintao's most recent speech promoting his "scientific outlook on development" was, from what I can see, rather predictable. I keep waiting for some sign out of the Party leadership that they recognize the need for substantive political reform, I don't really see that in Hu's speech. What is your impression of the results of this Party Congress?Madman of Chuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-50541151351262259472007-10-15T22:54:00.000-04:002007-10-15T22:54:00.000-04:00Dear Professor Meyer,In regards to the future of I...Dear Professor Meyer,<BR/>In regards to the future of Iraq, I personally hold the view that a partition may, perhaps, be better in a long, long run. To be sure, the state would be rive in civil wars and the position of the Kurds would be in danger; however, the Sunni-Shiite situation may actually be crystallized into a new "cold war"? <BR/><BR/>Sunni states like KSA and Jordan and Iran would probably support their respective co-religionists. I might be deadly wrong but since neither neither has absolute superiority over the other, the balance of power of the Middle East can contain the rivalry. (Please kindly correct me if I have been very naive...I have only taken a few classes... (?))<BR/><BR/>Secondly, would you happen to have the time and interest to comment on the 17th Party Congress?<BR/><BR/>And I am pleased to read your post again. ^^<BR/><BR/>augustineAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com