tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-84931382024-03-14T13:24:15.501-04:00Madman of ChuPolitics can not be conducted in ignorance of the history and culture of other nations.Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.comBlogger285125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-34566259439753666732024-03-09T17:40:00.001-05:002024-03-09T21:16:07.861-05:00"Liberal" Is Not the Opposite of MAGA. "Normal" Is.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWpILBgTZLJD_f00hgDyYjYHoMA-7VvFMMDoVGE_0gNauV-b2RiBy8j97SZC6ea-eHupjRobIhNrCyme16UQ9GuI1Qj-oLYxaCxGzx2Fyzeo-HgumZL_7feINy8mRisJmckHyPJdshlIFDzc4dlarH3MM3xotTdDlks-4caVSs2S5M3l9Frqpi/s415/MAGA%20meme.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="314" data-original-width="415" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWpILBgTZLJD_f00hgDyYjYHoMA-7VvFMMDoVGE_0gNauV-b2RiBy8j97SZC6ea-eHupjRobIhNrCyme16UQ9GuI1Qj-oLYxaCxGzx2Fyzeo-HgumZL_7feINy8mRisJmckHyPJdshlIFDzc4dlarH3MM3xotTdDlks-4caVSs2S5M3l9Frqpi/s320/MAGA%20meme.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />Listening to the puerile heckling and jeering of the MAGA caucus during the State of the Union Address, I was frustrated yet again about the reflexive discussion of our politics here in the US. The idea that President Biden represents "liberal" America while the cretins shouting at him in MAGA hats represent "conservative" America is so stupid as to cause anyone of moderate intelligence actual physical pain. There is nothing conservative about a movement that peddles conspiracy theories, denies the validity of free and fair elections, idolizes and abets a murderous Russian dictator, and passes laws premised on the idea that a frozen embryo has the same rights as the woman whose body produced it. <p></p><p>This very partial list of extreme implications of the MAGA agenda demonstrate that it does not conform to any bilateral model of American politics. A truly American politics is one in which both sides, while opposed, agree to coexist and share power. As President Biden said in the SOTU, "You can't love America only when you win." </p><p>MAGA, by contrast, pictures the world in starkly Manichean terms. Anyone who opposes MAGA is an enemy with whom no reconciliation or coexistence is possible, and who must not only be defeated but humiliated and subordinated (perhaps destroyed). That is why MAGA partisans feel entitled to shout at the President during the State of the Union Address, or to assault Congress while it was certifying the results of an election that the MAGA candidate had lost fair and square.</p><p>MAGA is thus not pursuing any set of goals that fall within a value system that can be called "American." It is seeking the dissolution of the American system as a whole. Their continuous evocation of 1776 is ironically apt, since the success of MAGA will effectively end the American experiment and start something new.</p><p>Why do MAGA voters want to end America? For all the hand-wringing and pontificating that pundits do about the need to "try to understand" MAGA partisans, their motives are not very complicated. They fall into three camps. </p><p>The first are religiously motivated voters who would like to make America a more "godly" nation (by, for example, outlawing reproductive freedom, ending marriage equality, mandating prayer in schools). For them, a nation that was less democratic yet more "godly" would be a worthwhile trade. Such voters have been present in the American political scene since colonial times.</p><p>Religiously motivated voters make up about half of the MAGA coalition. Another important constituency consists of economically disenfranchised citizens. These are people who, because their livelihood fell prey to the rapid and profound changes of the last 50 years (for example, the industry that supported the region in which they live collapsed due to technology or globalization), have seen their own fortunes fall even as the rest of the country (especially the wealthiest 1% of the rest of the country) has become richer. They are understandably angry, and in their anger are ready to tear down the system that they blame for their troubles.</p><p>Those two camps would not be enough to have won a national election, however. What put MAGA over the top was the third leg of the MAGA stool: racially motivated voters. These voters range from hard core racists such as Nick Fuentes, who has dined at Mar-a-Lago, to those who are horrified by overt bigotry but who were troubled by the election of Barack Obama for reasons they can't quite pin down. </p><p>This coalition can't be called "conservative." There is nothing conservative about the quest to destroy American democracy. Once democracy is gone, there will be precious little left to conserve, and precious little power left to MAGA voters for conserving anything (even the things that they purport to care about more than democracy itself). </p><p>What, then, is the opposite of MAGA? The answer is obvious. One does not have to be a Democrat or a liberal to understand the sheer folly of the MAGA agenda. Republicans as conservative as Liz Cheney can articulate it very clearly, and have done so in great detail. Anyone whose perspective and values falls within the normal range of American politics will stand in opposition to MAGA's goals. The opposite of a MAGA voter is thus a normal voter. </p><p>This can be underscored by applying the injunction to "try and understand MAGA voters" in reverse. If MAGA voters had any normal set of values, what onus would fall on them from a reasonable attempt to understand their opponents' perspective? If they looked at their leader and listened to his constant stream of vicious invective, sloppy gaffes, and sheer bizarre nonsense from the perspective of someone who did not agree with their politics, what would they naturally conclude? At the very least, it would be incumbent upon them to find a more effective spokesperson for their cause.</p><p>The fact that they would NEVER think that way, and in fact praise their Dear Leader even more lavishly as his performance becomes progressively more obscene, tells you all you need to know about the state of affairs. MAGA partisans can do nothing but troll their opponents because their world view admits no possibility of reasoned debate. In their eyes, we are irredeemably the enemy. We are evil. They do not have to deal with us in good faith, because as far as they are concerned we do not deserve such courtesy.</p><p> For MAGA voters to feel the way they do falls within their rights as Americans. We should not vilify or demonize them in the same way they do the rest of us, because to do so is to aid them in tearing America apart. But though we should not demonize them, neither should we treat their politics as normal. </p><p>Fortunately, the three wings of the MAGA coalition do not amount to even 40% of the American electorate. Even given the advantage they enjoy in the Electoral College, the MAGA camp will need to win millions of supporters from among undecided and independent voters. In that light, we should not allow the fiction that MAGA represents the "conservative" wing of American politics. The MAGA crowd are doomsday cultists, the rest of us, whether Democrats or Republicans, liberals or conservatives, are simply normal voters. Voting "normal" might sound boring, but the outcome is guaranteed to be better than what the doomsday cultists have on offer. <br /></p><p>. <br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-62879449117485143562024-01-28T00:22:00.006-05:002024-01-28T08:55:40.849-05:00An Open Letter to the Jewish Citizens of Israel<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin4nVBEGuJ4I6OmvUR24JRvDdrYk8KkRBDTw8jP4xbaPDDNIpIFfs_Jcta0Kb9yqJj8RkeA_1XdxuCwZpzIjcab6iKMrKU40Puj95OoJRbiz0_0p0d3OZolsWTEpw0MpHJ6SGx5AqJEZ4I7rNS7aOTP_hooLZkMAEpn8tbcsiC5LcKHorC6J8K/s1500/us_israel_flags_sky001.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1500" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin4nVBEGuJ4I6OmvUR24JRvDdrYk8KkRBDTw8jP4xbaPDDNIpIFfs_Jcta0Kb9yqJj8RkeA_1XdxuCwZpzIjcab6iKMrKU40Puj95OoJRbiz0_0p0d3OZolsWTEpw0MpHJ6SGx5AqJEZ4I7rNS7aOTP_hooLZkMAEpn8tbcsiC5LcKHorC6J8K/s320/us_israel_flags_sky001.webp" width="320" /></a></div><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Shalom Chaverim <span face=""Open Sans", sans-serif" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(2, 2, 2); color: #020202; font-size: 13.68px; text-align: right;">שלום חברים,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like most Jews
here in the United States, my heart was broken by the horrific crimes of October
7, and my thoughts have been with you ever since. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have been a
proud Zionist all my life. I know that in the wake of the Holocaust all Jews, whether
in Israel or Diaspora, gain security from the existence of a Jewish-majority
state. I am mindful of the sacrifice that those of you who live and serve in
Israel make on behalf of Jews throughout the world. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is in that
spirit of respect and gratitude that I tell you what many of you already know:
the government of Benjamin Netanyahu is hurting all of us. The scope of “all of
us” could be as broad as you like. It includes the people of Israel, the
hostages being held by Hamas, and the people of Gaza, to be sure, but given the
international implications of his government’s cynical malice, it extends to
the entire world. Yet, given the rhetoric that Bibi routinely employs, it is particularly
ironic that among the people his government is hurting most are Jews. Jews
everywhere.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am not a soldier,
but I am a historian, and the lessons of history are very clear. The war in
Gaza is a typical asymmetrical war. In China, Algeria, Kenya, Cuba, Vietnam, and
a hundred other killing grounds, the world learned, in fire and blood, that in
an asymmetrical war, political factors are vastly more important than military
firepower. Benjamin Netanyahu has the lesson backward. He is acting as if the
war in Gaza can be won with bullets and bombs alone, and as if Gaza and the
Palestinian people have no political life or identity at all. He is terribly,
tragically wrong, and his willful error is leading Israel and the world to disaster.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hamas must be
defeated, but it cannot be defeated tactically. As Bibi kills members of Hamas,
more rise up to take their place. This is especially true because Hamas, in
their cynical malice, make sure that for every Hamas terrorist the IDF kills,
it must kill or injure many innocent men, women and children, thus stoking hatred
and rage. This is a cycle without end. The only hope of victory is to enlist
allies from within the Palestinian community itself. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Israel’s
natural ally in this fight is the Palestinian Authority. It retains the
allegiance of large parts of the Palestinian community and has proven its
willingness to cooperate with Israel. A fight to simply “destroy Hamas” will go
on forever, will kill thousands more innocent people, and will eventually
lead to the complete moral and political bankruptcy of Israel in the court of
world opinion. By contrast, a fight to restore the control of the Palestinian
Authority in Gaza stands a chance of success. It is the best and only strategy
that can redress the crimes of 10/7 and make Israel secure. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will this lead
to the creation of a Palestinian state? Yes, it almost certainly will. But that
is a necessity long overdue. The absurd statelessness of Gaza (and the other
Occupied Territories) created the obscenity of Hamas in the first place, and ending
that injustice is the only way that Hamas can be permanently defeated. This war
can only really end with citizenship for the people of Gaza, the West Bank, and
East Jerusalem in a fully sovereign state. That state can be the existing
nation of Israel, or a new nation of Palestine. But a return to the stateless
limbo post-1967 will only keep the wheel of horror and destruction spinning
full tilt, or faster. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I write you
out of a heartfelt concern for my fellow Jews, but for selfish reasons as
well. Here in the United States, the Gaza War is having a tragic effect on our
domestic politics. Young people are abandoning our President, Joe Biden,
because of his staunch support of Israel. I do not blame Joe Biden for this.
His support of Israel is correct, it is what any responsible American president
would do. But I blame Benjamin Netanyahu. His cynical refusal to partner with
the Palestinian Authority and his insistence on using purely military means in
the prosecution of the Gaza War has made him a monster in the eyes of America’s
youth, and thus made Joe Biden a monster-by-proxy as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem
has become so severe that if it is not redressed soon, it may result in the
re-election of Donald Trump this fall. Make no mistake, the election of Trump
will be a disaster for Israel and for Jews everywhere. Trump is the leader of a
fascist movement that depends on Christian nationalists, white supremacists,
and Neo-Nazis for support. His second term will bring American democracy to an
end. His fascist regime might, in the best-case scenario, be no more
ideological than that of Vladimir Putin’s cleptocracy in Russia. But given the
toxic forces that form his coalition, his new America could easily come to
resemble Hitler’s Germany. If Trump is re-elected my family and I do not plan
to stick around to find out which scenario pans out. We will flee.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whatever the
case may be, Trump’s America will leave Israel more isolated and endangered. He
is utterly faithless and will give his friendship to the highest bidder. Moreover,
he will destroy the alliances in Europe and across the globe upon which presidents
like Joe Biden have depended in supporting Israel.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Benjamin
Netanyahu has surpassed virtually any other Israeli public figure in doing
damage to the Zionist cause.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His
political malpractice was difficult to overestimate even before 10/7, but the criminally
malignant policies he has pursued since then are utterly irredeemable. Every
hour that he remains Prime Minister he is doing material damage to Israel and
to Jews everywhere. As a citizen of the nation who once elected Donald Trump, I
have little standing to scold you about your choice of leadership. But as a Jew
and a citizen of the world I beg you, please send Benjamin Netanyahu packing.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I know this
letter was an exercise in presumption. If you have read this far, I hope this
message finds you well, despite all the pain and horror that has transpired
since 10/7. I thank you for your attention, I thank you for your sacrifice, and
hope that you will allow me to wish you again</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Shalom,</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Andy Meyer <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-46738273192238953612023-10-27T17:33:00.002-04:002023-10-27T17:33:54.277-04:00What to Feel, What to Do<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuxF7qA56h52_NSg1CSakieh4o2jiwBfpuZhnE0fp5-nq4jYx90dtiwSe4etTh9LAYtlV49RY8oU0MXIbxUqjjDQBjqC9t_zC5ZIabm_otZwJHzwvYqs4PPKzsckbgVPIVBKUFiBgT3UEROtXs2X3nlU65S1ZT7lki_YR_6AbBWVaRfefpsAQP/s3072/gaza%20conflict.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="3072" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuxF7qA56h52_NSg1CSakieh4o2jiwBfpuZhnE0fp5-nq4jYx90dtiwSe4etTh9LAYtlV49RY8oU0MXIbxUqjjDQBjqC9t_zC5ZIabm_otZwJHzwvYqs4PPKzsckbgVPIVBKUFiBgT3UEROtXs2X3nlU65S1ZT7lki_YR_6AbBWVaRfefpsAQP/s320/gaza%20conflict.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />As the
grotesque tragedy in Israel-Palestine unfolds, all means of engaging it from
afar disintegrate. Those of us who imagined we had seen the ultimate
existential nausea postmodernity could induce have been handed a hard lesson.
Worse still, it is impossible to know how much harder the lesson will become
before it ends, if it ever does.<p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Whether it
is from cunning or lucky intuition, Hamas has read the moment correctly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A world in which a man who tortures children
can pretend to be President of the United States, and another man who engages
in completely unprovoked aggression can talk of “de-Nazification,” is one in
which a group of reprobates can, heedless of what it will cost their own
neighbors and family in death and destruction, decapitate infants and elders,
shout “God is Great,” and call it “anti-colonialism.” We have gone beyond a
world in which it is impossible to understand what anything means, and entered
a universe in which it is impossible to make anything mean anything at all. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The cynicism,
boorishness, and sheer malevolent stupidity of the current moment make the
atrocities that innocent human beings are experiencing even worse. From the
perspective of parents (whether Jews, Palestinians, or anyone else) it is
always absurd to ask what the death of their children “means.” But both the
Netanyahu government and Hamas, in their own ways and to different degrees,
have worked tirelessly to achieve an utter void of anything but brutal horror. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
cynicism of Benjamin Netanyahu has been on display for decades. Nothing he did
or did not do justifies the obscenities of October 7<sup>th</sup>, but he
knowingly and deliberately used his power and pursued a political agenda
designed to keep the Palestinian people permanently stateless, humiliated, and
bereft of hope. He fostered what was not only a vacuum of power, but of
decency, and in a space emptied of decency it can be no surprise that a
malignancy like Hamas festered.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Hamas, for
its part, has kept the wheel of farcical cruelty and nihilistic chaos at full
spin. The utter justness of the Palestinian cause makes the malicious,
deliberate futility of Hamas’s tactics vastly more evil than they would be in
the murderous abstract. Anyone who is celebrating Hamas as a ragtag band of
“anti-colonialists” has misread the message written on the ground in
blood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hamas would not have committed
such monstrosities if they wanted an end to “colonialism” or anything else.
Strife and destruction are their own ends for Hamas. What happens as a result
of the carnage is not their concern. They trust that God will dispose. He is
great, after all.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">That is why Hamas has taken so many
hostages. Cheap video technology ensures that if there is a pause in the
horror, Hamas can set the wheel spinning again, by uploading to the web a video
of hostages being tortured, raped, or murdered. I can feel the eyes of some of
my fellow leftists rolling at this assertion. I of course hope I am wrong. I
suspect I am not.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">It is difficult to know what to
feel. Perhaps it is a wonder to feel anything at all. Sorrow and fear are of
course understandable, but can lead too easily to demoralization and passivity.
Disgust is certainly apt. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">I find it impossible to envision
how this crisis will end, if it ever does. The Israelis have no constructive
options, and even if they did their current leaders could not be trusted to
pursue them. What Hamas will do is impossible to predict, except to be sure
that whatever they do next will lead to more death and suffering for everyone
in Israel-Palestine. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">In the face of such utterly
senseless tragedy all each person can do is to follow her conscience. I know
that the citizens of Israel
have a right to live free, secure lives. I know that <i>all </i>the Palestinian
people have a right to be full citizens of a sovereign nation. I know that to
kill innocent people, in any cause, no matter how just, is wrong. I will
continue to speak these truths and work (expending thought, effort <i>and </i>money,
donated to the organizations who are engaged on the ground) to see them
realized. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">The only course of action that is
not acceptable now is to give up. That must be said, because the temptation to
give up is going to become almost irresistible. As this horror continues, and
its sheer pointlessness becomes ever more painful, it will be difficulty not to
collapse in despair. Strife and destruction are easy to conjure, cynicism and
callousness are easy to perpetuate. But even evil has its limits. If we
adamantly refuse to capitulate to the cynics and the thugs, and act as if we
have hope, hope can prevail. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-7755841132853302442023-10-15T08:20:00.003-04:002024-02-11T22:33:49.065-05:00An Open Letter to Ambassador Michael Herzog, Israeli Envoy to the United States<p> Dear Ambassador Herzog,</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am an
American citizen, but I write to you as a Jew, a Zionist, and a human being. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like all my
family and friends and the vast majority of my compatriots (and virtually all
decent people everywhere) I was horrified and heartbroken by the news of the
obscene atrocities committed by Hamas on October 7<sup>th</sup>. I understand
that Israel
has a right to defend itself, and is thus obligated to seek the destruction of
Hamas to deter such heinous acts being perpetrated by any group in the future.
I also understand that the use of human shields by Hamas and the tactical
conditions of Gaza
make the grim task of responding to the attacks of October 7 in accordance with
the laws of war excruciatingly difficult.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Two wrongs,
however, can never make one right. Nothing justifies aggression against
innocent civilians, especially the more than one million children who live in Gaza. Israel must
give innocent Gazans every chance to dissociate from Hamas and remove
themselves from harm's way. Moreover, the humanitarian crisis unfolding right
now in Gaza is
a war crime and must be redressed. The people of Gaza must have access to food, water,
medicine, and shelter. Israel
is obligated to provide these necessities to Gazan refugees <i>immediately</i>.
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Remarks such
as those by Israeli President Isaac Herzog to the effect that “an entire nation
out there…is responsible” are reprehensible and must be retracted. The
Palestinian people are human beings, not animals. They are not and cannot be
held collectively responsible for the actions of Hamas, any more than the
innocent civilians slaughtered on October 7 could be held collectively
responsible for the actions of the Israeli government. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>This
terrible war is a tragedy and will spawn more tragedy before it is over. But
tragedy does not abnegate any individual's or government’s moral duty. The
protection of innocent life is and must always be the first principle of any
legitimate state, and that protection is owed to both Israelis and Palestinians
by <i>all </i>governments. As a world citizen I expect to see Israel obey
international law, and in the aftermath of this war to recommit to a robust
peace process that is the only means to prevent the repetition of this tragedy.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Thank you
for your attention on this matter, and for conveying my concerns to your
superiors. My prayers are with you and with all the people of Israel-Palestine.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Sincerely,</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Andrew
Seth Meyer</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Professor of History</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Brooklyn College</p>
Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-18154131007764219672023-10-10T09:50:00.002-04:002023-10-10T09:50:57.584-04:00A War that Cannot Be Won<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4YKZIkQuMKdMa-ANA08v4vwwrmN4VSzTs0x_KmF8SmYINisJkNWXCM9eVAYi2IeCveu_y-ka4hlTRbv6T_FPvsvlEpz1U-5o1C_GCjZyeRV8rREJ0vz7RxExS51F3BHOJS4NHPOdEBke3ipKJaEhhLV9NOj_8I4S1pCWYqWJrXymnb2sk25H-/s275/gaza%20war.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4YKZIkQuMKdMa-ANA08v4vwwrmN4VSzTs0x_KmF8SmYINisJkNWXCM9eVAYi2IeCveu_y-ka4hlTRbv6T_FPvsvlEpz1U-5o1C_GCjZyeRV8rREJ0vz7RxExS51F3BHOJS4NHPOdEBke3ipKJaEhhLV9NOj_8I4S1pCWYqWJrXymnb2sk25H-/s1600/gaza%20war.jpg" width="275" /></a></div><br /><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">It will be difficult for those who do not know
the history of </span>Israel’s origins to
understand why, but within the twisted logic of Hamas’s world view, this attack
on Israel
is very cunning, even ingenious. The principles underpinning Hamas’s tactics
show that they have made a close study of their enemy. They comprehend and know
precisely how to exploit the most basic ideals at the heart of Israeli politics
and society.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>What are
these ideals? They are rooted in the Holocaust, which was the final demonic apotheosis
of all the forces that the Zionist movement had been created to defeat. During
the Holocaust the Nazis did not merely kill Jews; they desecrated and degraded
Jewish bodies so as to totally dehumanize them. For the Nazis a Jew was not
even deserving of the respect one would give an animal. One was as free to dig
in the mouth of a murdered Jewish child for gold or silver as one was to do so
in a pile of dirt. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When most
mainstream Zionists (among whom I count myself) call Israel a “Jewish state,” they
do not mean that it is one ruled by Jewish law or that works to fulfill Jewish
traditions (most of the founding leaders of Zionism, like David Ben Gurion,
were atheists). Rather, what makes Israel “Jewish” is that it is a
nation fundamentally committed to the principle that Jews are and must be
treated as human beings. “Never again” does not merely mean that Israel stands
against genocide. It declares that Israel will not allow any
government, including its own, to treat any Jew with less than the full dignity
of a person. Other governments may be free to treat their soldiers or citizens
as dispensable. Israel
is not.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Hamas knows
this, and has acted accordingly. The cruel logic of their attack is clear:
blanket Israel
with enough rockets to overwhelm the Iron Dome defensive system, so as to
inflict enough casualties to demand a military response. At the same time, take
so many hostages as human shields that a response is impossible, given Israel’s
commitment to absolute respect for the lives and dignity of Jews.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Israel cannot
win this war. Whatever happens, whatever Israeli leaders do, however much
intelligence and discipline they bring to bear on this crisis, the dilemma
cannot be un-puzzled. The choices that face Israeli leaders are impossible,
none of their options can bring anything but pain. Israel was already divided and in
turmoil before Friday’s atrocities, whenever the smoke clears and the fighting
is done that division and turmoil will be even worse. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But Hamas
cannot win this war either. Israel’s
critics, in fashioning apologies for Hamas’s tactics, will focus on the very
just grievances of the Palestinian people. The problem with such arguments, of
course, is that none of the grievances of the Palestinian people can possibly
be redressed by this obscenity. Yes, Israel’s obstruction of Palestinian
sovereignty is heinous, and yes, this attack raises the price of that
obstruction, but it is a price that in the short term will be paid by the
Palestinian people themselves, in suffering and death. There are many ways that
one might fight the injustice of Israel’s policies. Hamas has chosen
means that are deliberately calculated to exacerbate injustice and undermine
any hope of peace. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The lesson
of this tragedy is clear: there is no victory but PEACE. The dignity and
humanity of one group of people cannot be affirmed by denying the dignity and
humanity of any other. Any group which deliberately inflicts death and
suffering on others wins nothing for its pains but more death and suffering.
The only sustainable future in Israel-Palestine is one in which Jews and Arabs
live together as equals. There are many different ways to arrive at that goal
(two states, one state, or some union of joined sovereignties), but anyone who
is not working toward the end of peace and shared prosperity is digging a hole
in which they themselves are sure to be buried. Both sides have committed
terrible cruelties that undermine trust and make peace seem impossible. But the
struggle for peace is the only fight that can be won. </p>
Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-71496156163944697652023-08-08T16:01:00.001-04:002023-08-08T17:29:15.723-04:00In Praise of Chris Christie<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEgi84jZDtHSgu_mYN7we1HQowY75t8MlmmCY_-OxOXGMwyEfxvwuC7d1csloRAuRTl--pOIDEpH_DOZ6_gnaVABV-Q1aVsPE4gE6ZLuBpZC30HH3gyVEfLma_vmjuthH0VBhl7KJnTyQKM-y6216vgbZaGZR_4kLQrhRceJtKfowSFShx84Ep/s2048/christie-new1-superJumbo.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1365" data-original-width="2048" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEgi84jZDtHSgu_mYN7we1HQowY75t8MlmmCY_-OxOXGMwyEfxvwuC7d1csloRAuRTl--pOIDEpH_DOZ6_gnaVABV-Q1aVsPE4gE6ZLuBpZC30HH3gyVEfLma_vmjuthH0VBhl7KJnTyQKM-y6216vgbZaGZR_4kLQrhRceJtKfowSFShx84Ep/s320/christie-new1-superJumbo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />It has taken me a while to get on the Chris Christie bandwagon. To be sure, as soon as he entered the GOP primary race, I was pleased and grateful. The fact that he remains the only Republican candidate who is saying the unvarnished truth about January 6 and the Trump White House is as admirable as it is remarkable. But for various reasons (some of which I will explain below) I discounted the seriousness of Christie's campaign for the presidency. At best I deemed it an act of <i>noblesse oblige</i>: his candidacy could only matter to the extent that it impacted the political fortunes of Donald Trump. I no longer feel that way. Christie is a serious candidate for the presidency, and whatever the outcome of this election his candidacy is going to have an enduring impact.<br /><p></p><p>I confess that Christie's own history colored my initial view of him. I believed (and still do) that Christie ordered the traffic obstruction at the George Washington Bridge meant to punish the mayor of Fort Lee for failing to endorse Christie's gubernatorial campaign in 2013. That was an act of political vengeance so venal it made me blanch to think he might become president some day. It was arguably a foretaste of Trumpism: the use of government power to punish one's political enemies is what defines Trump. </p><p>Perhaps it is a measure of my own weakness of mind that I am now willing to forgive Bridgegate. The world has moved on: we have had such a grotesque monster in the Oval Office that, even if Christie has not repented of his ways, he could not possibly do anything but raise the mean quality of the presidency from the point to which it has sunk. Moreover, even though we are very early in the 2024 race, Christie has already displayed qualities that counterbalance the flaws of Bridgegate.</p><p>My conversion began with the news of Christie's trip to the Ukraine. Even before hearing him speak about the visit, I was impressed by the very fact that he undertook it. It was the act of a leader. He knows that many in his party (including the current front runner) are pushing a message that US support for Ukraine is at best a fruitless quagmire, at worst the corrupt quid pro quo for a bribe paid to Hunter Biden. By taking the political risk of visiting Ukraine, Christie both displayed unequivocal support for the embattled nation and developed unimpeachable credibility for speaking to the issue.</p><p>My new appreciation for Christie was solidified by seeing him speak this morning on live cable television. <i>Morning Joe </i>hosted Christie during the "C segment" of the broadcast, placing him at a table with Al Sharpton and Richard Haas. It was the kind of candid forum that few career politicians have either the courage, the intelligence, or the verbal skill to endure. Both of the other guests grilled him with tough questions about racial issues and foreign policy, and he provided answers that, if not completely spontaneous (Christie has a gift for making talking points and stump speeches sound extemporaneous), were thoughtful and substantive. He either has the right values, or he literally does a good enough impression of them for government work.<br /></p><p>I was especially impressed by Christie's discussion of Ukraine. He is critical of the Biden administration in ways that are forceful without being unrealistic. He decried the wisdom of giving Ukraine only enough weapons to keep them from losing. Giving Zelensky everything he is asking for still might not change the tide of battle, Christie conceded, but expecting the Ukrainian military to produce results while facing an 11 to 1 disadvantage in artillery and airpower is ridiculous. If the US is serious about supporting Ukraine, we must provide them with the weapons that will give them a fighting chance, including enough F-15 fighters to make a difference.</p><p>It is a message that deserves a hearing, and that would make for an excellent debate during the national presidential campaign. In a sane world, Christie would sail to the Republican nomination. Though the dynamics of the primary race massively favor Donald Trump at the moment, I would not count Christie out.</p><p>It is difficult for me to imagine a scenario in which I would vote for Christie over Biden. His positions on reproductive freedom, climate change, and entitlements are all deal breakers for any lifelong Democrat. But I must concede that his winning the nomination, and even the presidency, would be a positive development for the nation. Christie is a competent and conscientious politician, and for our constitutional order to survive there has to be a place for such people in <i>both </i>of the major political parties. Unless and until we can go back to a situation in which the Republican Party is a habitat in which someone like Chris Christie can thrive, our democracy remains in peril of collapse. <br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-90710347224970068012023-07-27T14:41:00.000-04:002023-07-27T14:41:04.785-04:00Israel is Gone, Zionism Remains<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfHANox3Cd9pctt3bzLtFTprnXGK7w6j71LmCLH_cHKLgpH5FhKCTClZN6OvU_OXDlwmVds9QsgIK5czpSSOPOHbpnfDdUWxRD55hoOZ7NrVbG9gIuWnIshZTlo2igoidnA_ELY7d51ZufZ6HcoSuxRzt3aZh8vxsKnh2pr5f71RDoMW3yCZDT/s299/Israel%20Palestine.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="299" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfHANox3Cd9pctt3bzLtFTprnXGK7w6j71LmCLH_cHKLgpH5FhKCTClZN6OvU_OXDlwmVds9QsgIK5czpSSOPOHbpnfDdUWxRD55hoOZ7NrVbG9gIuWnIshZTlo2igoidnA_ELY7d51ZufZ6HcoSuxRzt3aZh8vxsKnh2pr5f71RDoMW3yCZDT/s1600/Israel%20Palestine.jpg" width="299" /></a></div><br />The vote of the Knesset curbing the power of the Supreme Court to review legislation marks the end of Israel. This may be difficult to understand for some people, but its reasons are quite simple. Israel was only ever sustainable within certain parameters. Those parameters have been violated, and so Israel is lost.<p></p><p>It is a common misconception that Israel grew out of a religious movement. This is understandable, since so much of the iconography that identifies Israel internationally (the Star of David on the national flag, the name "Israel" itself, drawn from the Hebrew Bible) is religious. But the founders of Israel were secular humanists- by and large socialists and atheists. David Ben Gurion, Israel's first (and until recently longest-serving) Prime Minister, took much more inspiration from Vladimir Lenin than he did from Moses Maimonides. </p><p>There were lots of different conceptual models for the "Jewish homeland" among early Zionists, but the one that prevailed was that of Theodor Herzl. Herzl's ideal won out because it best comported with the emergent norms of 20th century international politics. Like other Zionists, Herzl proposed that, because of the threat of antisemitism, Jews needed a homeland. He was distinctive (though not alone) among Zionists in asserting that this homeland should not only have a Jewish majority, but be sovereign and militarized- a true nation-state. </p><p>But Herzl's Jewish state served secular and liberal ends: the nation existed only to safeguard the rights and freedoms that antisemites sought to deny Jews, not to achieve religious goals. Herzl's second Zionist writing, the novel <i>Altneuland </i>(<i>The Old-New Land</i>) underscored this point. The villain of that novel is a wicked rabbi who tries to turn the Jewish state into a theocracy.<br /></p><p>The secular liberal character of Herzl's vision was essential to the success of Israel's founding. Only by guaranteeing that all citizens would be free to choose the level of religious observance they desired was it possible to bring a critical mass of Jews together to face the challenges of establishing an emigre community in Palestine. Only by promising to respect the civil rights of non-Jews living in the new state was Israel able to garner international recognition in 1948.</p><p>The liberal safeguards that Herzl cherished were only ever imperfectly realized in the actual operation of the Israeli state, especially for Israel's Arab citizens and the Palestinians living in the Occupied Territories. But the existence of those safeguards, which largely rested on the power of the Israeli judiciary to limit the power of the Knesset and the Prime Minister, has been undermined. Every Israeli's freedom of speech and freedom of conscience is now threatened by the state. Every Palestinian living in the Occupied Territories is now subject to even more arbitrary exercises of state power, and the situation promises to deteriorate further as the current ruling coalition presses forward with its plans to amend Israel's Basic Laws. In the absence of even imperfect protections of civil rights, Israel is unsustainable.<br /></p><p>Some might object that I am being unreasonably pessimistic, but such an objection is tendentious. It does not take exceptional political wisdom to know that it is mad to pass a law that sends hundreds of thousands of enraged citizens into the street in a country whose very survival depends on the collective willingness of its people to regularly and routinely risk their lives in its defense. Israeli leaders do not have the luxury of insulting and alienating their fellow citizens to the degree that has become common here in the United States. The body politic cannot survive such strife.</p><p>It is likewise mad to move away from democracy in a country whose survival depends on the support of allies that cherish democratic values (even if that cherishing is often rhetorical). The course that the current government is on will diminish the rights of women, and LGBTQ citizens, and of anyone who is not Jewish or who is Jewish but not religiously observant to the standards of orthodoxy. As discrimination and violence towards women, non-Jewish Arabs, and LGBTQ Israelis increases, support for Israel in Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, and Brussels will inevitably recede. </p><p>The hope for Israel is fading, but the hope for Zionism need not. The citizens of Israel who cherish Herzl's secular liberal vision are being outvoted because the demographics of Israel are changing. The answer to this demographic problem is and has always been very simple.Twenty percent of Israel's citizens are non-Jewish Arabs. That is an ENORMOUS community in a country that is as closely polarized as Israel has become. </p><p>Despite being one-fifth of the country, Israel's non-Jewish Arab community has only ever held ONE SEAT in any governing cabinet (the prior government of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett). That is a ridiculous figure. Imagine if, in the years since 1948, there had only been one African-American member of any US president's cabinet. </p><p>There are, of course, mitigating circumstances. Hostility between Jews and non-Jewish Arabs has been intense and frequently violent. Many Israeli Arab citizens have refused to participate in the electoral process for political reasons. But supporters of secular democracy among Israel's Jewish population need allies, and the only community in which they will find those allies in sufficient numbers is the non-Jewish Arab community.</p><p>Forging a secular, democratic alliance between Jews and non-Jews will require profound compromise. Israel's non-Jewish Arab citizens will demand that the rights of Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, the Golan Heights, and East Jerusalem be respected, even to the point of those territories being united with pre-1967 Israel and all inhabitants being given full rights of citizenship. That new nation would most likely have a new name and a new flag.</p><p>That would not spell the end of Zionism, however. A democratic nation in which Jews constituted almost 50% of all citizens would still be one in which Jews were better represented than in any other nation on earth. Though such a united state does not comport with Herzl's vision, his was never the sole or defining voice of the Zionist project. Prominent Zionists such as Martin Buber, Henrietta Szold, and Albert Einstein envisioned a homeland that would be shared on the basis of equality and mutual respect between Jews and non-Jews. Now that the caretakers of Herzl's vision have failed, the ideals of Buber and Szold provide the best path for an ethical Zionism to continue.</p><p>Here in the US, it is commonly imagined that Israel was founded to revere Jewish tradition or to fulfill ancient Jewish aspirations. That is simply not true. Israel was founded to protect the rights of Jews to live in dignity and as human beings. That Zionist goal was and remains a noble cause, but it is one for which DEMOCRACY is indispensable. For Zionism to survive, democracy must be preserved, even if it requires that Israel evolve into something new. <br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-25980381280348505582023-05-03T10:11:00.003-04:002023-05-03T12:14:14.431-04:00The Words that Define "MAGA"<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-5857AYHyVRBKh8M4o0AdNOvb_-nLb-n4vISFDouNT3XavIkFsarRqqJvYN-h-vFG6azptu0vQ4dd8s1YqoUOSw-N50dukrdUHCEdPIgxs_31BQUHLPC5bNecaGmy_PwlBc3_8u1P2C6NlXo0QDDC868lLrbqIq4ZQw1WFCuthKVNGELMHQ/s301/Carlson.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="301" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-5857AYHyVRBKh8M4o0AdNOvb_-nLb-n4vISFDouNT3XavIkFsarRqqJvYN-h-vFG6azptu0vQ4dd8s1YqoUOSw-N50dukrdUHCEdPIgxs_31BQUHLPC5bNecaGmy_PwlBc3_8u1P2C6NlXo0QDDC868lLrbqIq4ZQw1WFCuthKVNGELMHQ/s1600/Carlson.jpg" width="301" /></a></div><br />"When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best...They're sending people that have lots of problems...They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists..."<p></p><p>Those were the words that made an obscenely ignorant and immoral reality TV actor President of the United States. To deny that fact is such an insult to the collective intelligence that it does not merit discussion. These words unleashed a latent energy in the American electorate powerful enough to fuel one of the greatest miscarriages of citizenship in the annals of democracy. They motivated millions of voters to give the nomination once held by Abraham Lincoln to a man who combined the intellect and competence of Homer Simpson with the high ideals of Bugsy Siegel. </p><p>Just as it is a waste of time to argue about whether these words began the rise of MAGA, it is pointless to debate their ultimate significance. They define MAGA as a racist movement, purely and simply. All arguments to the contrary are laughable. Was this an inarticulate attempt by an "ordinary man" to talk about the "problem" of immigration? No. An infinite number of chimpanzees typing on an infinite number of typewriters would not produce a statement as simplistically bigoted as this about "the problem of immigration" more than once in a millennium. </p><p> The appeal of the statement that launched MAGA was that it gave voice to anger and hatred of "them" (whoever "they" are, from the perspective of the listener). Once that license was issued, the worse demons of human nature were off to the races. MAGA has from the beginning been a politics of hatred and division: "They" are not our compatriots. "They" are not people with whom "we" are compelled to share power. "They" are criminals. "They" are rapists. "They" must not merely be beaten, "they" must be destroyed, if only in political terms (in other words, "they" must be denied protections of any basic rights, "they" must be disenfranchised). </p><p>The aftermath of the 2016 election has shown us exactly the kind of world that the words that birthed MAGA will create. Children stolen from their families. Young girls denied care after being raped. Mobs attacking the Capitol to overturn a free and fair election. A leader who lets thousands die during the greatest public health crisis in a century, because he is worried about the profitability of his hotels and resorts. A politics of hatred can never be compatible with democracy. Setting one part of the nation at war with another is the tactic of corrupt demagogues and fascists.</p><p>The most recent scandal at Fox News reaffirms all these truths about MAGA. The text that evidently "broke the camel’s back" for Tucker Carlson's tenure at Fox contained a line perfectly synonymous with the words that first generated the MAGA movement. Carlson, in describing an attack by three Trump supporters on one Antifa partisan, wrote: "It's not how white men fight." The lazy racism of the comment requires little analysis. What is significant is that, eight years after the ride down the gilded escalator, the beating heart of the MAGA movement remains the same: "We" are better than "them." </p><p> My point in rehashing all of this tawdry obscenity is not to indulge in virtue signalling or lament the state of the world. Rather, we should simply recognize the MAGA movement for what it is and act accordingly. Democrats should by all means propose plans to confront issues such as immigration, budget deficits, crime. But we should not pretend to engage debates with MAGA fascists over these questions. </p><p>For MAGA fascists, any question always boils down to how "they" are to blame and must be punished. Arguing with that kind of nonsense is a fool's errand. Develop plans. Propose solutions. If the opposition will debate issues, debate. But if the MAGA fascists simply want to haggle about "them," let them twist in the wind. Get the message out to those who are not deranged by hatred, and get them to go to the polls and vote. <br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-10211262152870318972023-04-12T13:32:00.003-04:002023-04-12T13:46:46.309-04:00Moral Quicksand<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4ebIA5yziNlIcjaNc10NEmJHgafv_-9dkjwDUReQ7tZ5Ha1M-A1ihVDIXoSclkrE_JljLyE21if1YNc5nZetABJgwlTNZz2_NRrHLWXtAQxkmkIth6_0HxKtb7q1FuEq61Abc1ZG6YtZT2LykA_WPTgTey-TtKg_YgmVRed32NzkZRv81lg/s301/reproductive%20rights.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="301" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4ebIA5yziNlIcjaNc10NEmJHgafv_-9dkjwDUReQ7tZ5Ha1M-A1ihVDIXoSclkrE_JljLyE21if1YNc5nZetABJgwlTNZz2_NRrHLWXtAQxkmkIth6_0HxKtb7q1FuEq61Abc1ZG6YtZT2LykA_WPTgTey-TtKg_YgmVRed32NzkZRv81lg/s1600/reproductive%20rights.jpg" width="301" /></a></div><br />A recent essay published on <i><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/08/republican-party-abortion-trap-00091088">Politico</a></i> describes the
issue of “abortion” as political “quicksand” in which the Republican Party is
beginning to sink. Where a few years ago polls showed voters split roughly
50/50 over the “abortion issue,” since the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v.
Wade, Republicans have been dealt a series of crushing electoral defeats. The
outcomes of these contests have been lopsided, like the 59-41% vote in the
August 2022 Kansas
referendum which rejected a state constitutional ban on abortion. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The 2022 midterm election and the recent
special election to fill a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court were even more
powerful statements of general voter hostility to attacks on reproductive
freedom.
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Though the
political dimensions of this phenomenon are dramatic and “made for television,”
it is foolish to be lulled or distracted by the bells and whistles of our
profit-driven media machine. Voters, activists, commentators and elected
leaders should not treat this as a political issue, because it is not one. It
is a question of foundational civil rights that must be protected in law. Anyone
who is trying to deprive citizens of their inalienable reproductive rights is
assaulting the basic humanity and dignity of millions. The movement to criminalize
abortion is thus not properly denoted as “political quicksand,” but as moral
quicksand.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Religiously conservative
pundits such as <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2022/11/14/ross-douthat-what-pro-life/">Ross Douthat</a> have gotten into the habit of complaining that the
Christian right’s reception of Dobbs has been “too extreme.” By this reading, there
was an optimally “reasonable” course of activism that would have been heralded
by the removal of the protections to women’s and families’ rights guaranteed by
Roe v. Wade. A set of policies that were “pro-children” rather than
“anti-women” would have constituted the agenda of this “reasonable” post-Roe
world.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Such a
specious fantasy was at best always a glib pretense, but the reality that has ensued in the wake of Dobbs reveals it to have been a vicious
lie. The <a href="https://time.com/6198062/rape-victim-10-abortion-indiana-ohio/">ten-year old girl</a> forced to travel from Ohio to Indiana to receive an
abortion after being raped by a male relative, and the numerous instances of
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/10/pprom-florida-abortion-ban/">women denied treatment</a> when faced with <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/03/07/1161486096/abortion-texas-lawsuit-women-sue-dobbs">severe health risks during pregnancy</a>
since the Dobbs decision, all stand testimony to a fact that has been crystal
clear since Roe v. Wade was first adjudicated: there is no way to “kindly” or
“gently” remove the essential safeguards that protect human liberty, autonomy,
and dignity. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Although it
is a wonder that mendacious pundits like Douthat can sleep at night, some of
the blame for our current morass lies with elected leaders who have been defending
reproductive freedom in recent decades. They let the so-called “pro-life”
movement pull a con on all of America.
The public discourse on reproductive rights has been stuck in a debate over the
ethics of abortion, which is patently absurd. <i>Reproductive freedom is not
and has never been an issue about the ethics of abortion</i>. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The question at the heart of the
debate about reproductive freedom is not whether abortion is wrong, but whether
there is any way to morally employ state power to criminalize abortion. The
answer to that question is now and has ALWAYS been an emphatic: “NO!” Even if,
for the sake of argument, we grant that government has some legitimate
authority over what happens inside a woman’s body (which it most certainly DOES
NOT), in a nation of 330,000,000 people spread over almost four million square
miles, there is no way that government at any level (federal, state, or local)
can gather information fast enough to make informed decisions about how many of
the three million unwanted pregnancies that occur every year may be “rightfully”
terminated (for example, to protect the health of the mother or because they
were the result of incest or rape). </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Criminalizing abortion <i>cannot </i>be
done “reasonably.” It necessarily subjects women to egregiously intrusive forms
of government surveillance, unfounded suspicion, and arbitrary restrictions on
their medical care. In the best case scenario all women become subject to
gratuitous insults to their dignity, as they are forced to plead with petty
bureaucrats and lawyers for the basic care to which they should be entitled as
citizens and human beings. In the progressively worse (and more likely) case
scenarios, millions of women are materially injured, abused, or murdered, as
their work and travel are restricted, they are denied critical medical
treatment, or as they are forced to carry the offspring of men by whom they
have been battered and raped. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Propagandists like Douthat enjoy
spreading the myth that the Dobbs decision is the culmination of decades of “grass
roots activism” by well-meaning and conscientious people of faith, and that it
is just an unfortunate coincidence that the repeal of Roe has coincided with the
recent surge of fascist extremism by right wing voters and politicians. But that,
of course, is an extension of the lie that there was some “non-authoritarian” path
to the removal of safeguards for reproductive freedom in the first place. The remaining minority of Americans who support Dobbs range from the moderately religious to the zealously fanatical. Some of them will be satisfied by very narrow restrictions on abortion that allow liberal exceptions for "rape and incest" and "the life and health of the mother." But many (if not most) of them will only be satisfied by the most draconian ban on abortion "from the moment of conception" in ALL CASES, and will want further controls on common forms of contraception like IUDS, birth control pills, or even condoms. Many (if not most) members of this latter group will want to see restrictions placed on women's travel and even employment, for the protection of the "unborn."</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">In order to keep the so-called "pro-life voter" coalition coherent enough, in an age of polarized electorates, to continue to control policy, the fanatics have to be appeased. The aftermath of Dobbs has proven this, and is only a foretaste of what is to come. There was thus <i>never</i> any
context in which Roe v. Wade could be repealed <i>except</i> a slide toward
fascism in the USA.
Anyone who claims to dislike the bigotry, racism, sexism, and anti-democratic
thuggery of the MAGA movement but to approve of the politics of Dobbs is a
liar, full stop. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Democrats are understandably
excited about the results of elections like those in Kansas
and Wisconsin.
But leaders of all parties should understand the lessons of the past. “Abortion”
was a “50/50” issue before Dobbs because elected leaders did not speak<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>candidly and substantively about the issue of
reproductive freedom and what was at stake if Roe v. Wade was repealed. The
fact that so many millions of voters who previously told pollsters that they
were “pro-life” have showed up at the polls to vote against “pro-life”
propositions and candidates in the last year shows that they were surprised by
the consequences of Dobbs, <i>and they should not have been</i>. If a candidate,
for example, like Hilary Clinton had spoken frankly about what the effects of a
repeal of Roe were certain to be, we might not be in this position in the first
place.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">It is too late to undo those
mistakes. But today’s leaders can learn from them. The voters are obviously
ready for a discussion about the true moral stakes in the debates over
reproductive rights. If elected leaders and political candidates speak to
voters with informed candor and moral clarity, the hard work of restoring the
safeguards of reproductive freedom can be accomplished. </p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSlZcGm0bipzhQA_Z83Et3KS2h76bsgi5TwsyIm85L5wd8WLOJtmZaOVsJvXAeTY9tB0ij4syWimUO-bqBzPmHdmz08OPELANmCRc6u4Y7v3hUj4c7c7Dq_oo65LpyH42pWT4TUDj-dK6-mIz8bqYJsD4PJEl455Ajo-cEQhUw0fynsEEFsw/s301/reproductive%20rights.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="301" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSlZcGm0bipzhQA_Z83Et3KS2h76bsgi5TwsyIm85L5wd8WLOJtmZaOVsJvXAeTY9tB0ij4syWimUO-bqBzPmHdmz08OPELANmCRc6u4Y7v3hUj4c7c7Dq_oo65LpyH42pWT4TUDj-dK6-mIz8bqYJsD4PJEl455Ajo-cEQhUw0fynsEEFsw/s1600/reproductive%20rights.jpg" width="301" /></a></div><br />Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-35940372178300206452023-02-23T18:43:00.002-05:002023-02-26T07:51:42.462-05:00Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine: Lessons to Live (or Die) By<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/230220102544-07-biden-ukraine-022023.jpg?c=original&q=w_1280,c_fill" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="800" height="213" src="https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/230220102544-07-biden-ukraine-022023.jpg?c=original&q=w_1280,c_fill" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal"> Joe Biden’s
surprise visit to embattled Ukraine
is the latest in a series of adept political maneuvers that have heightened the
stakes of that conflict and fostered unity of purpose among the allies standing
in defiance of Vladimir Putin. As the war enters its second year, questions of
strategy and the search for an “end game” become more urgent. What is the path
forward, and how can past experience help us find it?</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Ukraine is the
third in a series of object lessons about the nature of modern warfare that
have unfolded on the global stage in the past two decades. The conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan,
and Ukraine
all make manifest a common principle. This truth may be stated succinctly: “An
army that believes in its cause will fight; an army that does not believe in
its cause will run.”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>This truism
might seem too cliché to merit remark, but somehow its significance has eluded
leaders throughout the world. To be sure, the lesson is not new. Many conflicts
in recorded history, dating back to ancient times, corroborate its validity.
But it is worth noting that the world of microchips, satellites, and precision
bombs has not altered its saliency. No amount of technology can make warfare a
purely mechanical process. Politics remains a durable and determinative factor
in military affairs. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 207.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What, then, does a comparison of
the conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Ukraine demonstrate, and how can
such a comparison help world leaders make better decisions moving forward? The
collapse of the Iraqi Army in the face of the ISIS
assault of 2013 and of the Afghan Army in confrontation with the Taliban in
2021 stands in stark contrast to the resolve demonstrated by the Ukrainian Army
in the past year. Juxtaposing the three conflicts demonstrates how decisive
political factors can be to military outcomes. Both the Iraqi and Afghan armies
possessed equivalent or superior numbers and armament relative to their
respective opponents. The Ukrainian Army has been outgunned and outmanned from
the very beginning. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>It thus must
be very clear to world leaders, particularly the leadership of the NATO
Alliance, that morale and motivation played a key role in all these events. But
there seems to be a soft bigotry at work in the inferences drawn from these
facts. European and American leaders appear to believe that the contrasting
levels of commitment displayed by the soldiers of Iraq and Afghanistan on the
one hand and the Ukraine on the other may be put down to “cultural”
differences. Otherwise it is difficult to explain why NATO leaders are
determined to make the same mistakes in Ukraine
that they made in Iraq and Afghanistan.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The people of Iraq
and Afghanistan do not lack
any of the potential for nationalistic conviction and commitment that the
people of Ukraine
have been proven to possess. The soldiers of Iraq
and Afghanistan
did not perform poorly for lack of patriotism, but because at the time of their
deployment, their homelands were not true nation-states. Iraq and Afghanistan
were both occupied by foreign powers, the leadership in Baghdad
and Kabul were
denied the autonomy and true powers of sovereign governments. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was,
ironically (given my above remarks on the ways in which politics can trump
technology), made most obvious to the soldiers of Iraq
and Afghanistan
by the state of their armaments. In Iraq,
for example, at the time of the ISIS assault
of 2013, the Iraqi Air Force had only two combat airplanes, both Cessna prop
planes modified to carry a single Hellfire missile each. That was in contrast
to the regime of Saddam Hussein, which had one of the largest air forces in the
world, able to deploy hundreds of MiG, Mirage, and Sukhoi fighter aircraft. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">This wide disparity in capability
was demoralizing to the Iraqi Army of 2013 more for its political significance
than its material, technological impact. The government of Saddam had been
pathological and widely despised, but its ability to acquire and freely deploy
advanced offensive weaponry demonstrated that it was truly sovereign. The Baghdad government of 2013 was just as clearly a client of
the United States, prevented
from arming their soldiers with the basic tools of a modern army by their
colonial masters in Washington
D.C.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Iraqi
Army went up against ISIS with slightly better
weaponry. They had light artillery and combat helicopters that ISIS did not possess. But the soldiers of ISIS were animated by religious fervor. They were willing
to die in suicide attacks to make up for their inferior firepower. The soldiers
of the Iraqi Army, in the face of such zealotry, were being asked to die in
defense of a government that was obviously a puppet of Washington D.C.
Is it really such a shock that many Iraqi soldiers did not feel this game was
worth playing? Virtually the same dynamic was at work in Afghanistan,
with identical results.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
distinctive performance of the Ukrainian Army does not arise from differences
in culture, but in context. Their Russian opponents do not exhibit any fraction
of the zealous passion that animated ISIS or the Taliban. More importantly,
Ukrainian soliders have never had to doubt that their national spirit is exerted
in service of a government that is authentically sovereign. The Ukrainian Army
was (and is) smaller than that of Russia, but well-armed and
well-equipped with the current tools of war. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Moreover, though Ukraine has
been <i>materially dependent </i>on foreign support of its war effort,
Ukrainian leaders have never allowed such dependence to infringe upon their
sovereign autonomy. This was publicly broadcast by Volodimir Zelensky’s famous
declaration, in the face of American offers of transport to safety in the early
days of the conflict, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” From that moment
forward, the people of Ukraine
have had reason to be confident that their leaders are setting their own
agenda, without deference to the priorities of the US or any other foreign power.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Since the success of the
NATO-Ukrainian partnership has depended upon the robustly nationalistic morale
of the Ukrainian army and people, the worst thing that NATO leaders could do is
to encroach upon or violate the sovereign dignity of Ukraine’s government or leaders. Yet
when pundits and officials of the NATO nations speak publicly about the
trajectory of the Ukraine
conflict, they frequently entertain plans that would deeply offend their
Ukrainian partners. A significant constituency among the NATO leadership seem
to believe that a negotiated settlement could be reached allowing Russia to continue to occupy the Donbas region,
the Crimea, and/or other Ukrainian territory
currently held by Russian troops. The people and government of the Ukraine will
never assent to such an accord.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">It does not take much thought to
realize why the same spirit that has animated Ukrainian resistance precludes a
peace short of the total expulsion of Russian forces. The clear object of Russia’s
offensive was to destroy the Ukrainian nation. For the resolution of this
conflict to provide any assurance of Ukraine’s survival, it cannot
legitimize the goals or methods of the Russian campaign <i>to any degree</i>.
Thus the sanction of Russia’s
occupation of <i>any</i> portion of Ukrainian territory will be perceived as
tantamount to an invitation to attempt the destruction of Ukraine again,
at some time in the indefinite future. Put yourself in the position of any of
the middle-aged Ukrainian women who have taken up arms in defense of their
homeland, imagine what they think as they look at their granddaughters,
wondering if those children will have to live through the same cataclysm again,
and you can quickly understand why any resolution of the conflict that does not
entail a complete withdrawal of Russian forces will not be politically feasible
in Ukraine. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">If NATO continues to proceed as if
a territorial “compromise” is achievable, the strategic partnership with
Ukraine will eventually go sideways, producing outcomes comparable (in kind, if
not degree) to what was seen in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is unlikely, given the
robust spirit that has developed among Ukraine’s
people and soldiers, that any pressure from or foot-dragging by NATO will
shatter Ukrainian morale as was done to the armies of Iraq in 2013 and Afghanistan in 2021. But such a
collapse is not impossible, given world enough and time. If you deprive
Ukrainian soldiers and citizens of their nationalist aspirations, you deprive
them of an asset that has been much more vital to their military success than
money, supplies, or munitions. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">There are catastrophes that fall
short of an unlikely collapse of Ukrainian political will, however. It would be
surprising if Volodimir Zelensky’s government had not already begun researching
alternative sources of support, should NATO’s will and enthusiasm begin to
flag. Kiev
could strike out on its own, producing a far more volatile and unpredictable
conflict that might induce horrific destruction and loss of life. The effects
of such a development on the battlefield, on the internal politics of Ukraine, and on
its relationship with the NATO allies could be profoundly tragic. There is
little that Russia
can do at this juncture to “win” the war, but there is much that NATO could do
to lose it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">What, then, are the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan
that can be applied to the conflict in the Ukraine? They boil down to this:
success for NATO depends upon treating Ukraine as a genuine strategic
partner, and not as a client or proxy. Any attempt to strongarm the government
or people of Ukraine
into a “compromise” they cannot accept will undermine all the progress toward a
just resolution of the conflict that has been made thus far. The final goal of
all partners in the anti-Putin coalition must be the total and complete
withdrawal of <i>all </i>Russian forces from <i>all </i>of Ukraine. For
that to happen, the Ukrainians must be supplied with the tools and weapons that
will allow them to mount a successful offensive against superior Russian
numbers. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vladimir
Putin will never be dislodged from the Ukraine by purely diplomatic means.
His political survival depends on the claim that this absurd, pointlessly
destructive war has achieved some semblance of a strategic goal. For such a
claim to be tenable, Putin must hold on to <i>some portion</i> of the Ukrainian
territory he has annexed. He will never cease fighting unless his opponents
assent to some portion of his territorial claims, but this is a concession that
the leaders and people of Ukraine
will never give. He thus must be driven out of Ukraine <i>by force</i>. Only when
it is clear that his army cannot defend its position inside Ukraine will Putin have motive to
come to the negotiating table, on the chance that he can barter an armistice in
exchange for exemption from liability for the costs of the war.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>NATO
leaders have a stark choice. One option is to totally and unconditionally support
the Ukrainians in their campaign to restore the territorial integrity of their
homeland. The only other choice is to accept defeat, and to face a world in
which Vladimir Putin, to one degree or another, gets to set the rules of
international relations. For the sake of the welfare of the global community,
we must hope that NATO leaders choose correctly. </p>
<p></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-27537886269100751372022-11-16T16:52:00.002-05:002022-11-16T16:59:04.338-05:00An Open Letter to Dave Chappelle<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIcCF3YFxYIUZSl7R7aC0Q6VETFbxY_VCHIUqYab_7O9rUsoLoRbOJ1V9ruA-olDJRmavThaTxutTocGSolWfdK8_oji7N-hggztaa5hp9SL0Cmu5pMpqBQJas_wLeuafp8W9DN57KugO7OI3Ojm_o3SA2RF4yewKJKr5cq1upPpyAtYgsMA/s600/Chappelle.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="600" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIcCF3YFxYIUZSl7R7aC0Q6VETFbxY_VCHIUqYab_7O9rUsoLoRbOJ1V9ruA-olDJRmavThaTxutTocGSolWfdK8_oji7N-hggztaa5hp9SL0Cmu5pMpqBQJas_wLeuafp8W9DN57KugO7OI3Ojm_o3SA2RF4yewKJKr5cq1upPpyAtYgsMA/s320/Chappelle.webp" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p> </p><p>Dear Mr. Chappelle,</p><p><br /></p><p> Hello from the campus of Brooklyn College, where I teach in the Department of History. Long time fan, first time writer. I can hear you laughing as you read that, since it makes the reason for my letter so obvious.</p><p> I watched your most recent SNL monologue on my DVR last night. I was away over the weekend, and it had taken a few days for Twitter and Facebook to cue me in that something interesting had happened. I was so intrigued I watched it twice (okay, I confess, my wife asking about it played a part in my second viewing). </p><p> It confirmed me in two impressions. The first is that you are perhaps one of the greatest artists our nation has ever produced. I knew you were talented. Some of your work on <i>The Chappelle Show </i>made me laugh as hard as any comedy I had ever seen in my life. But that monologue was a quantum leap beyond anything I've seen another comedian do in a public forum. </p><p> My second impression was that you don't really understand the perspective of American Jews. Not really. I don't make that kind of assertion lightly about an artist of your obvious genius. No one develops powers of insight and creativity like yours without cultivating a great reservoir of empathy. But somewhere in your friendships and other interactions with members of the Jewish community you have come up against the limits of that resource.</p><p> I think I understand what you were saying on Saturday night. "Talking has become too hard." Kanye is a case in point. Like you, he is a great artist. And I know how much you like and admire him personally. His performance of "Jesus Walks" with the Central State University marching band is my favorite part of <i>Dave Chappelle's Block Party</i>. Your SNL monologue is made all the more awe-inspiring because it was so much an act of personal courage and devotion to a friend.</p><p> I see the logic in your argument. The price Kanye has paid is huge. One billion dollars for a few stupid remarks from a man unwell enough to ridiculously spout about being too rich to wear gold chains. It is especially unfair against the context of a man who told four Congresswomen of color to "go back where they came from" and yet still has every prospect of being the next Republican nominee for the presidency.</p><p> But there's something you seem to be missing. You acknowledged that "the current climate" impacts how we should read Kanye's words. For Jews, that is like saying that the meteor hurtling toward earth should inform whether we decide to carry an umbrella. In a few short years we've watched lunkheads with tiki torches marching around chanting, a horde of fascists swarming like ants over the Capitol, a Nazi with an AR-15 shoot up a synagogue. </p><p> The other night a friend asked me "are they going to send us to the ovens?" I'm a historian, but I don't have a crystal ball. If like mine, your daughter were Jewish, would you feel confident that the answer to that question was nothing to worry about? </p><p> A man who can sell a billion dollars worth of shoes is a man that reaches A LOT of people. The Nazis who hung signs over highways saying "Kanye was Right" know exactly what that kind of publicity is worth. If things go the wrong way in 2024, that tag line is sure to make a comeback.</p><p> You are right, it has become too hard to talk. But some of the reason for that lies with the toxic nature of so much that is being said. At times like this, it becomes as hard to listen as it is to talk. You have a brilliant voice, and I hope it is never silenced. But I hope you will listen too. </p><p><br /></p><p> Sincerely,</p><p><br /></p><p> Andrew Meyer<br /></p><p> <br /></p><p> <br /></p><p> <br /></p><p> <br /></p><p> <br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-47219731768528145592022-10-13T15:48:00.003-04:002022-10-17T08:00:42.639-04:00Between Despair and Hope in Ukraine<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPwE-bG6Q3vi8zi67Ap3pTumVGR2M_kquN35YnGLTJkzJQvDeL9Ec_jb10-mjTGjYrgO4-JYAZg7u-xnXqsvFEcnMFP_Pq5OFIFesbaMHFCGIF_9vLr-0VtI2XphYxbQFAzhGiXULv_tAPFDft-jg_ISEtjaTM4XLp8MuKu62vZY4Qm2wN6w/s1024/Stop%20Putin%20Stop%20War.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="1024" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPwE-bG6Q3vi8zi67Ap3pTumVGR2M_kquN35YnGLTJkzJQvDeL9Ec_jb10-mjTGjYrgO4-JYAZg7u-xnXqsvFEcnMFP_Pq5OFIFesbaMHFCGIF_9vLr-0VtI2XphYxbQFAzhGiXULv_tAPFDft-jg_ISEtjaTM4XLp8MuKu62vZY4Qm2wN6w/s320/Stop%20Putin%20Stop%20War.webp" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: large;">T</span>he war raging in Ukraine opens a new phase in the
post-Cold War era of global affairs. For the past two decades international
relations have been highly inflected by the events of September 11, 2001 and
the US
response to those attacks. Moving forward from the current moment the outcome
of the war in Ukraine
will have a similar shaping impact.
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
moral stakes in Ukraine
are enormously high, but it is of course always advisable to take as practical
and dispassionate a view of such conflicts as possible. We are well advised not
to focus on what ideally should happen but rather on what is certain or at
least most likely to happen in concrete terms. If we do so, however, we find
that the moral and practical dimensions of the Ukraine war are inextricably
intertwined. The dangers of thinking or acting too cynically are as grave as
the potential pitfalls of moral idealism.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To
understand why this is so, one only has to begin by asking a deceptively
simple-seeming question:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Why did
Vladimir Putin invade the Ukraine?”
All of the reasons that Putin himself have given are utter nonsense. The idea
that Ukraine is organically
a part of “Mother Russia” was long ago shown to be ridiculous, in the strife
following Putin’s machinations in Crimea and the Donbas
region. The canard of “de-Nazification” is deliberately laughable. It
broadcasts the contempt of a man who insists that anyone who opposes him does
not even deserve to be spoken to seriously. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The true
logic of Putin’s invasion is ultimately inseparable from the logic of his
obscenely cleptocratic regime.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Russia is
territorially the largest nation on earth, covering more than 6.6 million
square miles richly endowed with natural resources. Its 144 million people are
among the best-educated in the world. Yet its economy is smaller than that of Italy, and its GDP per capita ranks
fifty-seventh in the world, well behind nations such as Greece (51) or the Bahamas (45). Russia’s rate
of economic growth is shockingly slow when compared with other formerly
communist nations possessed of similar assets. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All of these
conditions reflect the reality that Putin has turned what should be one of the
wealthiest and most powerful nations on earth into the turf of a primitive
criminal syndicate of which he is head. He and his cronies are a literal
network of vampires who keep order by sucking the lifeblood of Russian society
nearly dry. This network extends beyond Russia’s
borders into the satellite nations of the former USSR. The sheer improbability of
such a monstrosity in the 21<sup>st</sup> century was made manifest by the
“Revolution of Dignity” that swept Ukraine in 2014. The grotesque insult
of being made part of a thieves’ banquet for Putin’s cronies was infuriating
enough to galvanize Ukrainians and set them on a path to both democratic
independence and a collision with Putin’s murderous machine.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only if we
remain clear about how ludicrously retrograde Putin’s regime really is can we
understand the degree of desperation expressed in February’s invasion. In
explaining why this war happened many observers either give too much credence
to Putin’s deliberate absurdities or focus myopically on the wrong side of the
“risk-reward” calculation upon which the war was predicated. It is true that
Putin was emboldened by overtures of friendship from Xi Jinping and by the
success his “active measures” campaigns had achieved in sowing discord
throughout Europe and America.
He was also obviously ignorant of just how degraded his military had been by the
corrosive graft of his cleptocratic regime. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But though
these facts help explain why Putin sorely underestimated the risks of invasion,
they do not account for the urgent goals that he gambled so much to
achieve.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By February it had become clear
that the resistance to vampiric Putinism had spread from Ukraine into Belarus,
Kazakhstan,
and beyond. Robust popular protests against the cleptocratic regimes in those
states coincided with the resurgence of activism by Russian dissidents like
Alexei Navalny. Putin knew that he had to put the vampires back in charge in Ukraine, or the
whole network underpinning his power might unravel and bring him down with it.
That is what this war has been about all along, and that is why there is little
that anyone can offer Putin in pursuit of a negotiated peace. Anything short of
sinking his fangs back into Ukraine’s
arteries will not appease him, and the Ukrainians know it.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since the
ends Putin has been pursuing are so transparently and egregiously illegitimate,
any “compromise” aimed at avoiding tragedy will inevitably produce a tragedy as
bad or worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is clearest from the
perspective of the Ukrainians. The horror of more death and destruction is
awful. But the horror of trading in their new but vibrant democracy for the
rule of Vladimir Putin <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(a man who, for
example, builds palaces for himself at the cost of $1.4 billion while poisoning
his opponents with polonium) is even worse. <a name="_GoBack"></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Yet even
if we branch outward from the perspective of Ukraine to that of the entire world,
there is no redeeming value in offering Putin an “off ramp.” Pundits express
understandable concern about the prospect of Putin using nuclear weapons (there
is obviously no limit to how many he is willing to murder), but the very nature
of his threat compels world leaders to ignore it. Since Putin’s goals in this
conflict are <i>completely</i> and <i>transparently </i>illegal, immoral, and
illegitimate, there is no way that any degree of success he garners will be
perceived as anything but the fruits of nuclear blackmail. If he gains a single
square yard of terrain, the world will know that it was given to him solely
because he threatened to commit unprovoked mass murder. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When
blackmail succeeds once, it will inevitably be tried again. Any nation or
leader who has <i>any </i>conceivable pecuniary interest, no matter how
criminal, will maneuver to achieve those ends through threat of nuclear arms. Nations
who have nuclear weapons will brandish them freely. Nations that lack nuclear
weapons will pursue them ardently. That dynamic can only end one way: with a
nuclear conflagration. The choice before leaders right now is thus clear: we
are poised between the <i>possibility</i> of a nuclear catastrophe if they move
to thwart Putin and the <i>certainty </i>of nuclear catastrophe if they do not.
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is
only one outcome of the Ukraine
war that can be acceptable to decent people throughout the world: every Russian
soldier must leave <i>every square foot</i> of Ukraine,
including the Donbas region and the Crimea. Any
other aspect of the aftermath of the war might be negotiable (reparations for Ukraine from Russia,
consideration of the rights of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine, etc.) , but Vladimir Putin’s illegal
and immoral invasion of Ukraine
(which began in 2014) must be undone. That should be the message coming from
every capital in the world, but especially from Washington, D.C.
Any fear that such unequivocal demands pose risks is pure folly. Until Putin
knows that his opponents truly understand what is at stake, he will continue to
play for time and hope that his foes’ political will and unity will collapse. If
he were ever given a clear signal that the jig was up, his bluster would
evaporate.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
entire world is frozen between despair and hope in Ukraine. If Putin’s vicious gambit
succeeds to any degree, the future trajectory of global affairs will be grim. The
neo-fascist politics Putin advocates will spread, and more governments
throughout the industrialized world will fall to vampiric cleptocracies. Global
diplomacy will degenerate into a farcical game played by gangster regimes bent
on plunder. Violence will proliferate.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>If Putin
can be thwarted, however, the effects will range from the benign to the
marvelous. Democracy could take hold in the former soviet republics, perhaps
even in Russia
itself. A new age of global cooperation and shared prosperity might ensue. That
message should be broadcast by world leaders clearly, especially to the people
of Russia:
a better world awaits <i>everyone</i>, if only this mad spasm of murderous greed
and villainy can be made to abate. </p>
<p></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-21795237273855039302022-07-02T13:42:00.000-04:002022-07-02T13:42:03.770-04:00An Open Letter to President Biden on the Repeal of Roe v. Wade<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZYi9Q_YyEKCEaAx7XWy_AmLkPluFpXGfn5V6fTZjdHPK13OUfRaivAj7pmuuwmnqtM5-QmJa5GK-m4F62jdlfXNv9gkfuslt8pe6K8RCk5wy5p_xld-LMEXko24euQxpbKrAeJgQ0tYR_obctNtTRR60reifF022OX-nVEzaWmCt3aH9JCA/s724/CEE9F351-7080-43E4-8DEE-CC01A02E9B2B.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="411" data-original-width="724" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZYi9Q_YyEKCEaAx7XWy_AmLkPluFpXGfn5V6fTZjdHPK13OUfRaivAj7pmuuwmnqtM5-QmJa5GK-m4F62jdlfXNv9gkfuslt8pe6K8RCk5wy5p_xld-LMEXko24euQxpbKrAeJgQ0tYR_obctNtTRR60reifF022OX-nVEzaWmCt3aH9JCA/s320/CEE9F351-7080-43E4-8DEE-CC01A02E9B2B.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br />Dear President Biden,<p></p><p><br /></p><p> I was encouraged to see you endorse the elimination of the filibuster in order to pass legislation protecting women’s reproductive rights and health. We have never faced a comparable crisis in our nation’s history, in which a single ruling of the Supreme Court stripped protections from millions of people, turning them instantly into second-class citizens. Truly drastic measures are justified.</p><p> I would urge you to make the passage of such legislation a priority of your administration. The bill that is needed would be a strict codification of the protections afforded by Roe, with a guarantee of free access to abortion in the first trimester of pregnancy and clear limits on the power of the government to regulate reproductive health in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. Such a narrowly construed bill will be difficult to pass. Conservative members of the Democratic caucus will fear it is too bold a step, progressives will feel it does not go far enough. It is for precisely this reason that the bill must cleave as closely as possible to the stipulations of Roe. A return to the status quo ante stands the greatest chance of overcoming factional resistance.</p><p> Such a bill is imperative both in principle and as politics. In principle it is the only way to restore full citizenship to millions of Americans. As politics it will force the GOP to run on a platform of repealing women’s rights, thus fully revealing one of the most malignant impulses that now animates the Republican Party as an electoral coalition. Codifying Roe is not only the right thing to do, it is the last hope your party has of generating support for this fall’s midterm election. It would be a chance to show Americans that Democrats can, in acting on their beliefs, make citizens’ lives better.</p><p> Of course, such a bill would not be enough. The Constitution will have to be amended to protect Americans of all genders’ rights against the continued assaults of sexism, racism, and homophobia. But that is a long term fight. For now the malignant actions of the Court must be countermanded. Thank you for your attention to this matter.</p><p><br /></p><p> Sincerely,</p><p><br /></p><p> Andrew Meyer</p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-40247338208127292332022-05-25T17:10:00.002-04:002022-05-25T17:10:13.108-04:00Federally Mandated Firearm Liability Insurance (Reposted)<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijgs9B_1Ta-qbhgphK5LFBNJ0MKvNk0DsU3jbjJSHqHyYk0s-QrhmF-pqwwAvLAomJaM05d9i-4qFfZ-_m1Gt0_1oxPDFwxUDZ3f4Np8SZTfrkr7z22lcsdeLDktyuA7CHSrPrqzcz-I5r-gR8R31wuVDCiDyl5MDhGKA_xcmEW-2iH58Whw/s289/Robb%20elementary.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="174" data-original-width="289" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijgs9B_1Ta-qbhgphK5LFBNJ0MKvNk0DsU3jbjJSHqHyYk0s-QrhmF-pqwwAvLAomJaM05d9i-4qFfZ-_m1Gt0_1oxPDFwxUDZ3f4Np8SZTfrkr7z22lcsdeLDktyuA7CHSrPrqzcz-I5r-gR8R31wuVDCiDyl5MDhGKA_xcmEW-2iH58Whw/s1600/Robb%20elementary.jpg" width="289" /></a></div><br />In the immediate aftermath of the Newtown massacre <a href="https://madmanofchu.blogspot.com/2012/12/federally-mandated-firearm-liability.html">I posted a short piece on the issue of gun control.</a>
Twelve years later, the idea I proposed in that essay has achieved no
traction. In the wake of the most recent tragedy in Uvalde, Texas, the
discussion of the issue has settled into familiar patterns. Calls for
"common sense legislation" like background checks abound. Unfortunately,
the inevitable lack of motion on such basic proposals cannot help but
radically demoralize citizens and politicians. I thus hope that
re-posting my idea from a decade ago might be timely in the face of
persistent sorrow, in the hope that a different approach to the problem
might break our political deadlock:<p></p><p>The legal and social forces
impacting this question [of gun control] are intensely complex, but the need is so urgent
that I hope we may see forceful and rapid action to reform our gun law
regime in significant terms. In that spirit, I would like to add my
voice to <a href="http://www.masson.us/blog/?p=9043">others</a> <a href="http://www.masson.us/blog/?p=9043">who</a>
have proposed a policy solution that might form a departing point of
consensus over a fraught issue: the adoption of a federal mandate
requiring liability insurance for the purchase and ownership of a
firearm.<br />
<br />
First, let me address the underlying principle of such a proposal. The
logic of requiring gun owners to purchase liability insurance is the
same as that which applies to users of automobiles. Right now the rights
of gun ownership are private, but the costs of gun accidents, injuries,
and violence are socialized. This is a fundamentally unfair situation.
The second amendment guarantees that gun ownership is a <i>right</i>,
not a universal actuality on the terms most convenient to those desiring
weapons. If the second amendment allows that every citizen may be
compelled to pay the fair market value of a weapon, it also allows that
each gun owner may contribute toward private funds mitigating the social
costs of gun use.<br />
<br />
This policy would naturally serve as a "gateway" impediment that would
deter gun sales, and those who oppose gun law reform might argue that it
would keep firearms out of the hands of those who "need" them. This is a
complicated point of contention, but it in no way rises to the level of
a disqualifying objection. The potential benefits of such a policy are
so salient that any ancillary "down side" could be remediated by, for
example, the passage of subsidies to make coverage accessible to small
business owners and low-income citizens who might otherwise be blocked
from gun ownership. <br />
<br />
In social policy terms, this measure would be a versatile means to use
the forces of the free market to foster gun safety and responsible gun
use. Actuarial studies could determine the level of liability coverage
that was optimal for all gun owners, and private insurers could be
relied upon to sell such coverage to individual gun owners at the fair
market cost. Naturally, gun owners who could demonstrate that they had
adequate gun safety training, had laid plans for the secure storage of
their weapons, and had purchased weapons whose design minimized social
hazards (e.g. "smart guns" with private locks or designed to be operable
only by their owner) would attain the most favorable rates of coverage
from private insurers. Such an insurance regime would not only influence
gun owners, but gun manufacturers and retailers as well, incentivizing
them to adopt best standards and practices that promote gun safety and
security in the community at large. Thus with a minimum of government
intervention behaviors could be widely fostered that would be socially
constructive and might deter tragedies like the most recent sorrow in
Newtown.</p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-55918908723841599582022-05-09T20:44:00.004-04:002022-05-09T20:48:32.808-04:00We Will Only Miss Roe When It Is Gone<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMOa_8Ca7s3RQSHEzOiMariukA-f47T_aXMfBtvpvMkj0roN589PRdWTfa4C6oRtf6CBw9HG18obp9HDuEXvIZB0TGlDxtFs_gRIXyz5o3k7IE40EXhv6n7naySA6yM7PL8yuQA1gNuX6xkPxgbMeicsCqcaFyuH--pawt5_l8zVPjWjInjw/s2000/scotus-leak-law-main.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1333" data-original-width="2000" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMOa_8Ca7s3RQSHEzOiMariukA-f47T_aXMfBtvpvMkj0roN589PRdWTfa4C6oRtf6CBw9HG18obp9HDuEXvIZB0TGlDxtFs_gRIXyz5o3k7IE40EXhv6n7naySA6yM7PL8yuQA1gNuX6xkPxgbMeicsCqcaFyuH--pawt5_l8zVPjWjInjw/s320/scotus-leak-law-main.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal">It was very
disorienting, on stepping off the plane after an 18-hour flight to Singapore,
to be assaulted by the news that the Supreme Court is on the verge of
overturning Roe v. Wade. It was a scene from a sci-fi novel. Somehow the plane
had not only deposited me on the other side of the globe, but in an alternative
reality. Something like the “multiverse” described in the most recent
Spider-Man movie.
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
gratuitous pain that will flow from these events is bizarre to contemplate.
Media coverage and mainstream political commentary will focus on the reductive
issues of abortion and choice. We will hear much about the horrors of
back-alley procedures and the crushing economic consequences of unwanted
pregnancy. While all of those concerns are real, they are just the tip of a
large and grotesquely toxic iceberg. Roe has been protecting us from some of
the most malignant dimensions of our own politics for many decades. We have
taken the decency and social equity produced by Roe for granted, and are going
to REALLY miss it once it is gone. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Absent a
consensus that a woman has full rights over her own body, the full power of the
government will be available to be harnessed by fanatics and bigots of all
stripes and magnitudes. If the rights of a fetus can trump those of the woman
who carries it, all women become subject to massively expanded surveillance
powers of the state, and will be susceptible to controls to which no fully
autonomous citizen would be compelled to assent.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The government will have an interest
in knowing <i>whenever</i> a women is late for her period, so as to know
whether or not she is carrying a “person” in need of “protection.” Each woman’s
movements and habits will thus be open to expanded scrutiny to that end. Any
time a woman <i>might </i>be pregnant it will be logical to restrict her work
and travel. She could not do any job that might increase the risk of a
miscarriage, and would have to be prevented from traveling to a place where
abortion is legal. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Anyone who scoffs at such worries
sounds a lot like those Germans who laughed off the danger to Jews in Germany in 1933,
when Hitler first became Chancellor. If you create an opportunity for fanatics
to use state power they seize it, and they use it without any regard for what
the majority might consider “reasonable” or “decent.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most Americans do not vote on the issue of
reproductive freedom because it is much like food: as long as you have it in
good supply, you pay little attention to where it comes from. It is only when
such a basic asset begins to run out that it becomes an urgent concern. Those
voters who did concern themselves intensely with reproductive freedom before
now were mainly concerned that everyone else had too much of it. As those voters' wishes come true, everyone else is going to feel the noose
drawing tighter. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">If Roe v. Wade is overturned, it
will be the moral equivalent of reinstating the Dred Scott decision or
nullifying Brown v. Board of Education. Instantly, millions of Americans will
be turned into second-class citizens. The practical impact of that state of
affairs on the lives of millions of women will be slow to build, but
inexorable. The only redress will be to amend the Constitution by way of
restoring the autonomy and dignity of all Americans. In the current climate of
polarization it is difficult to imagine such a remedy meeting with success. But
as the fanatics and bigots do their work, and as the peace, security, and
decency that Roe afforded us as a society melts away, the momentum to amend the
Constitution will build. The task will be long and the effort strenuous, but
the work begins now. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></p>
Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-54695823321968861212022-03-23T14:01:00.001-04:002022-03-23T16:51:40.253-04:00An Open Letter to President Joseph Biden<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsAtr_U9Hrx1rn4sGgxxqTwXFC-E3KSldKUE0KPm9bSVHB50ITWN3IksKKQm4wKjv4Ll3ffttgbflKM_ghsHN7TgHDtE1H5_ypYb_6SE1X-5MFpbiblAIXN1oy3cIpeyhMJpwNSkxy1C4HJa9lzx5i63oCqoHSDwRKCHbnW7tvnvojaU-S6g/s292/us%20ukraine%20flags.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="173" data-original-width="292" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsAtr_U9Hrx1rn4sGgxxqTwXFC-E3KSldKUE0KPm9bSVHB50ITWN3IksKKQm4wKjv4Ll3ffttgbflKM_ghsHN7TgHDtE1H5_ypYb_6SE1X-5MFpbiblAIXN1oy3cIpeyhMJpwNSkxy1C4HJa9lzx5i63oCqoHSDwRKCHbnW7tvnvojaU-S6g/s1600/us%20ukraine%20flags.jpg" width="292" /></a></div><br />Dear President Biden,<p></p><p><br /></p><p> As a concerned citizen I write you about our efforts in the U.S. to aid the people of Ukraine. The invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin is not merely an illegal act of aggression, it is a combination of malignant demagoguery with the most venal form of kleptocratic greed. On the one hand Putin sells his murders as being in service of a racially defined "Greater Russia" that is purely fascist in conception. On the other hand his campaign is aimed at putting the wealth and productivity of Ukraine at the disposal of him and his cronies, so that they might buy more mansions and yachts. It has become rare to see acts of such naked evil perpetrated on such a large scale since the end of World War II. </p><p><span> </span><span> </span>Your leadership in this crisis has been commendable. You have taken a strong stand against Putin's villainy, and kept our allies unified in providing material support to Ukraine and imposing punishing sanctions on the Russian economy. But I fear that the greatest tests may lie ahead.</p><p><span> </span><span> </span>Though the Ukrainian people and their president have mounted a heroic defense of their homeland, they remain massively outgunned by the Russian military. In Chechnya and Syria Vladimir Putin has shown that there is no bottom to his homicidal depravity. He will continue to escalate the level of murderous destruction leveled against the civilians of Ukraine, including the elderly, children, and infants, until the will of the Ukrainian people is broken or until there are not enough of them left alive to wage a resistance. As Putin does this, his threats to use nuclear weapons will become more brazen and more grotesque. <br /></p><p> We cannot let that happen. The fall of Ukraine would usher in a newly nihilistic era in world politics. Every bad actor in the globe would feel emboldened to use force in pursuit of pecuniary interests. Nuclear proliferation would spin out of control. The clear lesson of Ukraine would be that a nuclear-armed nation can hold the rest of the world hostage, and so every petty tyrant on earth would demand to have atomic weapons, and the time before one was used would be short.</p><p><span> </span><span> </span>There has been much discussion about the ways in which US intervention in Ukraine could inadvertently set off World War III. Such concerns are valid, and in a crisis such as this, caution is always wise. But we must understand one thing: while intervention to assist Ukraine <i>might</i> trigger World War III, the destruction of Ukraine will make World War III an absolute certainty. We must do anything and everything we can to prevent that from happening, up to and including the imposition of a no-fly zone to interdict Vladimir Putin's campaign of murder and terror.</p><p> Thank you for brave leadership in hard times. I hope this message finds you well, and that you will be guided by the highest wisdom in your confrontation of this crisis.</p><p><br /></p><p> Sincerely,</p><p> Andrew Meyer<br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-47317050080612611382022-03-09T15:47:00.002-05:002022-03-09T15:47:41.092-05:00The Zelenskyy Lesson<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiLJN7BzkMMCpQEn8vjU2agZ4Hwx9L46om2qeLxxt0rL5u4igcg5g8YPCIvRoyJVOoUnDMNU_JGqlDPFbbtyF0zPUMza0ghabzR92Qa9qk2U5GtSU1uPkwr8Gi4n__ivS24gZt_NGnM7eghuGzpTz9rKqW62NH6xWypDDbi72laoatV7g9egA=s760" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="760" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiLJN7BzkMMCpQEn8vjU2agZ4Hwx9L46om2qeLxxt0rL5u4igcg5g8YPCIvRoyJVOoUnDMNU_JGqlDPFbbtyF0zPUMza0ghabzR92Qa9qk2U5GtSU1uPkwr8Gi4n__ivS24gZt_NGnM7eghuGzpTz9rKqW62NH6xWypDDbi72laoatV7g9egA=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br />Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been giving the world a master class
in leadership since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. It should not be
surprising. Though Zelenskyy rose to power as a celebrity and a comic
(embodying the same regrettable trend in world politics that gave us our last
president here in the US), some of the same dimensions of his career and
experience that made him such a dubious leader in peacetime make him ideally
suited to the current moment of crisis.<p></p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In fact,
the lesson that Zelenskyy is giving all of us extends far beyond his specific
circumstances, or even the particular abstract case of “a wartime leader.”
Zelenskyy embodies a principle of political dynamics that is starkly manifest
in history, but that few political leaders seem to understand. Certainly his
lesson would have been of enormous profit to the last four administrations here
in the US.
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>What is
Zelenskyy teaching us? Simply this: that the outcome of political or military
conflicts is virtually <i>never </i>predetermined from the outset. All
conflicts evolve dynamically in response to the choices and actions of the key
participants. The one and only question that determines the level of influence a leader may exert on the
outcome of a crisis is: “What is s/he willing to risk?”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>That would
seem an obvious truism, but it is a principle that few American leaders have
understood or embraced in recent decades. Most American foreign policy,
especially in the face of conflict and crisis, is informed by what I call the
“static state fallacy.” American leaders look at what they believe the tactical
situation is at the beginning of a conflict and assume that those facts will
remain unchanged, thus the outcome is predetermined. They then decide what to
do on that basis, with the virtually exclusive goal of avoiding risk.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>A tragic
example of this error can be seen in the case of Syria in 2011-2012. As the uprising
against the brutal Assad regime began, the situation was quite fluid. High
ranking members of Assad’s cabinet defected. Few in Syria knew what to expect. A robust
sign at that point of support for the insurgency by the US (for
example, the declaration of a “no-fly zone” to protect innocent civilians from
the brutal terror inflicted by Assad’s air force) would almost certainly have
shifted the conflict against the Assad regime and foreshortened the civil war.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Why did
Barack Obama refuse to act? He assumed that the amount of support for and opposition
to the Assad regime was fixed, thus US action would not influence the
outcome. He also assumed that the fall of the Assad regime, even if it
occurred, would put Syria
into the hands of radical, malignant jihadists. Risking the loss of US pilots in a
maneuver like a “no-fly zone” was thus a poor tradeoff. This was a clear
example of the static-state fallacy: Obama failed to understand that US action could
not only re-align people’s expectations in ways that would decrease the power
of the Assad regime, but also in ways that decreased support for the jihadists.
</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The number
and power of jihadists in Syria
was never predetermined. By failing to act the US
helped foster groups like ISIS, who gained support because they filled a power
vacuum created by US
passivity. If the US had
understood and acted on the Zelenskyy Lesson, much suffering might have been
avoided, and many subsequent events (for example, the US election of
2016) might have occurred differently.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Zelenskyy’s
example is proof of this principle. The outcome in Ukraine was never predetermined. If
Zelenskyy had accepted the opportunity to flee offered him by the US (to which he
famously responded, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/europe/ukraine-zelensky-evacuation-intl/index.html">“I need ammunition, not a ride”</a>), Putin almost
certainly would have captured Kyiv by now. Zelenskyy’s flight would have
signaled to the whole world that Ukraine expected to lose, and that
expectation would have become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Many Ukrainians who
were on the fence, who were waiting for some sign of their compatriots’
commitment to the cause of Ukrainian nationalism, would have read Zelenskyy’s
flight as a sign that all was lost. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Instead,
Zelenskyy’s refusal to flee and his deliberate visibility has galvanized the
determination of Ukrainians to preserve their hard-won national independence.
It is a true meeting of the man and the moment. All of Zelenskyy’s training as
an entertainer, his comfort level in front of the camera and ease of
expression, make him the perfect figure for the role he must play. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But of
course there is one thing Zelenskyy brings to the table that no one could have
anticipated, perhaps even Zelenskyy himself. It is his obvious willingness to
die. Zelenskyy clearly understands something about nationalism: it entails
making the nation into an ultimate value, and for that to be true someone has
to stake his or her life for the nation. That is what Ukrainians are responding
to so viscerally. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>As a fellow
Jew, two of whose grandparents emigrated from Ukraine, I cannot help empathizing
with Zelenskyy’s existential situation. In life, Jews can generally only ever
hope to be perceived as marginal figures, never wholly integrated into whatever
group to which they currently belong. But by risking death Zelenskyy has
finally escaped the Jewish dilemma. He has made himself the very embodiment of
the Ukrainian soul. How vexing it must be for Vladimir Putin to encounter a
President who actually believes in something, and is ready to sacrifice for it.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>This is not
to suggest that the “Zelenskyy Lesson” requires that leaders must always risk
death (their own or that of others) in order to influence political outcomes.
But in order for leaders to influence the dynamic of any
crisis, risks must be taken. Each crisis evolves in accordance with the
expectations of those involved, and all participants set their expectations by the
signs of what everyone else is willing to risk. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The US
has taken risks in the Ukraine
crisis thus far. But the point at which the US signals that it will risk no
more, its capacity to influence the outcome of the crisis will evaporate. Will
that point come late enough to save the people of Ukraine from
destruction? For the sake of the entire world, I hope it does. </p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-21770352201075284942022-02-27T14:29:00.003-05:002022-02-27T14:44:11.573-05:00Climbing the Ladder with Vlad<p class="MsoNormal"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg9GV6Ekq9v21z9qXAmA0Ny1ZuDXRMnpvFW9G-fjtT6WQo0oAReJ0dOrFuMuGNFvtR3MUlZfEMU6h-QSWKL6ulctcENZAzjNmnETVNsyMBz_MgOAcfMyg0SvMR9NYoMflErqeOK-GjImwCNHES1QKbKNsOi5dXgJrQqioBSpf6OmBwTsODz5Q=s681" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="605" data-original-width="681" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg9GV6Ekq9v21z9qXAmA0Ny1ZuDXRMnpvFW9G-fjtT6WQo0oAReJ0dOrFuMuGNFvtR3MUlZfEMU6h-QSWKL6ulctcENZAzjNmnETVNsyMBz_MgOAcfMyg0SvMR9NYoMflErqeOK-GjImwCNHES1QKbKNsOi5dXgJrQqioBSpf6OmBwTsODz5Q=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br />The one
thing that can be predicted for certain about Russia’s
unprovoked invasion of the Ukraine
is that it will change the world forever, though in what way and to what degree
that change will come is impossible to foresee. The best way to model this
conflict is as a ladder. At each juncture the participants must decide whether
to go to the next rung. The unfathomable question is how high we will all
climb. Given the inherent risks of reaching the top, it is difficult to
understand why Vladimir Putin has chosen to start climbing. <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">One motivation was clearly
insecurity. He worries about democracy movements in neighboring countries like Belarus and Kazakhstan
(themselves extensions of the successful democracy movement of 2014 in Ukraine), and
is terrified by the prospect that those developments will give energy to
Russian dissenters like Alexei Navalny. Invading Ukraine gives Putin an opportunity
to exercise the powers of an autocrat in a cause that is popular with Russian
nationalists, he thus may hope that this adventure will fortify his position
and roll back the advancing tide of democracy. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Another proximal motivation was the
opportunity provided by China.
Beijing, under increasing pressure from the
Biden administration over the situation in the Taiwan Strait, chose to push
back by signing a joint communiqué with Russia, effectively stating that
each nation would support the other in territorial disputes. The Chinese no
doubt knew it was risky to link the issues of Taiwan
and Ukraine together, but
they did so out of their own profound sense of insecurity over the status of Taiwan.
Offering their support to Putin in this way emboldened the Russian leader to
provoke a crisis, making him feel that the member states of the EU and NATO
would not have the political will to get on the wrong side of <i>both </i>Moscow and Beijing.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">A final factor that played into
Putin’s decision was most likely overconfidence. The active measures undertaken
in support of Donald Trump’s presidential bid succeeded so spectacularly that
Putin may well be inclined to overestimate his own strategic skill. Like
Hitler’s decision to invade the USSR
after the lightning defeat of France,
Putin’s recent success may have made him lose perspective on just how much he
has to lose from making the wrong move.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The distance we have traveled up
the ladder of escalation displays Putin’s obvious sense of confidence. We have
gone from threats, to mobilization, to incursion, to what is now the largest
and most destructive military mobilization in Europe
since WWII. Few could have predicted we would be here even one month ago.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">But the measure of Putin’s
overconfidence may be found in the distance up the ladder he has yet to travel
to achieve what seem to be his goals. Four days into this campaign, Russia is not yet
able to transition from “invasion” to “occupation.” Putin seems to have estimated
that the commitment of almost 200,000 soldiers to this operation would make the
Ukrainian government and military fold. By now he expected the Zelensky
government would have fled and the Ukrainian army surrendered. Instead Zelensky
remains in Kyiv (to all appearances ready to die at his post) and the Ukrainian
army has kept the Russians from taking key objectives. While this goes on, NATO
and the EU have shown unity and resolve, rallying to inflict economic pain on Russia
that will intensify in the days and weeks ahead.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The next rungs on the ladder are
very dark. The key advantage enjoyed by Russia’s military is in air power
(roughly a 15 to 1 advantage in attack jet aircraft). If the Ukrainian army and
people continue to resist, Putin is almost certain to begin using
indiscriminate air attacks to destroy Ukrainian resistance, resulting in
horrific loss of life. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Where will the US and its NATO
allies go from there? The imposition of a “no fly zone” would be a very risky
step, but is not inconceivable. The next step up the ladder from there for Mr.
Putin would be attacks against NATO-protected refugee centers in Poland or NATO anti-aircraft installations in Romania. The
top rungs of the ladder entail the use of nuclear weapons. Will we climb that
high? One must dearly hope not. But it is difficult to understand exactly why
Mr. Putin has taken us this high already, so predicting where he will stop is a
fool’s game.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0.5in;">One thing is certain: the blame for
this crisis lies <i>entirely </i>with Mr. Putin. There is hypocrisy on the part
of the US
and NATO, yes. The US did
not have much more justification for invading Iraq
than Mr. Putin has in Ukraine.
Righteous concern for the fate of innocent lives in Ukraine
was not matched when Mr. Putin was murdering innocents in Aleppo. But none of those wrongs make what Russia is doing
now right. This invasion is a brutal and unconscionable crime; it is a
violation of international law and of the rights and dignity of the people of Ukraine.
The climb up the ladder we face is very frightening, but to my mind the free
world does not have a choice but to match Mr. Putin rung for rung until he
backs down. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-69504733057111919202022-01-23T13:07:00.001-05:002022-01-23T13:12:22.620-05:00Riding with the Ramapo PD<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiK76lDbUe0aFDxH9BV4EFCfqo1Zgdp3LE6Np81flrM3fpwB11-ktF6Xs2gjOiZ0Vib_9u6dn84voXtXEKkk5R0P15x6pDqL4401poECDbxesud6syM_0Cs5c1LYb315Ij5JK0Hw9oSs4qs7hO-Rs3iGHj6RPvJYNcgLa768J9FgOHQjFAciQ=s337" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="242" data-original-width="337" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiK76lDbUe0aFDxH9BV4EFCfqo1Zgdp3LE6Np81flrM3fpwB11-ktF6Xs2gjOiZ0Vib_9u6dn84voXtXEKkk5R0P15x6pDqL4401poECDbxesud6syM_0Cs5c1LYb315Ij5JK0Hw9oSs4qs7hO-Rs3iGHj6RPvJYNcgLa768J9FgOHQjFAciQ=s320" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</p><p class="MsoNormal">Like many stories about members of Generation X, this one
involves Facebook. Danny Hyman and I both grew up in the town of Ramapo, New York.
We went to junior high and high school together, but we didn’t really become
friends until the summer of 1984. That year we were both 17, and worked as
junior counselors for the youngest boys at Surprise Lake Camp, a sleepaway camp
just over the Bear Mountain
Bridge in Putnam. As
co-workers we shared a cabin with two other junior counselors. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I could
have told you then that Danny would become a cop. One Friday night, when we
were both off work Danny and I took two of our female colleagues in his car for
a trip out of camp. As the driver he got to set the itinerary, so we went back
to Ramapo to show off our home town. We encountered a car crash on Route 45 and
Danny pulled over to help, springing into action (deploying his training from
the Spring Hill Ambulance Corps, for whom he was a volunteer) with a first aid
kit that he kept handy for just such occasions. We never got another date with
those two young ladies, but it was a memorable evening.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Danny,
following in the footsteps of his dad, a NYC firefighter, joined the NYPD, and is
now Captain Daniel Hyman of the Town of Ramapo Police Department. My life path
meandered a bit, but I eventually settled nearby. I live with my wife and
daughter in New Jersey and teach in the
History Department at Brooklyn College (my specialty is the history of China). Danny
and I have only seen each other two or three times in 3D space since high
school, but like many fifty-somethings we have seen a lot of each other on
Facebook in recent years.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>That is how
I got the invitation to come ride along on patrol with one of Ramapo’s finest.
As is true of many college professors, I am liberal in my politics and free
with my opinions. I shared the widespread sorrow and outrage of much of the
nation at the murder of George Floyd. Those feelings, and the larger movement
for police reform that grew out of them, inspired the Facebook post that
brought Danny and I together in non-virtual space again. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On December
5, 2020 U.S. Army Second Lt.
Caron Nazario was pulled over by Officers Joe Guttierez and Daniel Crocker of
the town police force in Windsor,
Virginia. The officers had
signaled Nazario to stop because they did not see the dealer plates taped into
the rear window of his new vehicle. Nazario, who is black, on realizing he was
being pulled over, led the police for a mile until he could pull into a
well-lit service station. Gutierrez and Crocker approached Nazario’s stopped
car with guns drawn and began to dress him down in very belligerent, blatantly
disrespectful tones. Despite the fact that Nazario remained calm and respectful
at all times (he persistently asked why he had been pulled over, but never
raised his voice or directed insulting remarks at the officers themselves), he
eventually was pepper sprayed, thrown to the ground, and handcuffed. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Video of
the incident became public in April of last year, as a result of a lawsuit that
Nazario brought against the police. At one point in the video Nazario tells
Officer Guttierez that he is afraid, to which Guttierez responds “You should
be.” On seeing the video, I posted to Facebook:<i> I can think of many
appropriate responses a police officer might offer when a citizen says, “I’m
afraid.” “You should be” would top the “don’t” list.</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i>Danny
commented on that post. He didn’t defend any of the conduct depicted in the
video, but warned against leaping to conclusions or accepting facile arguments
to “defund the police.” At the end of a friendly exchange he extended an
invitation for me to join one of the officers of the Town of Ramapo police on patrol: “<span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">I think you will have a new perspective,
and so will the officer.” I didn’t need any convincing.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>That
was how I found myself putting on a bullet-proof vest to join Officer Sean
Baird on patrol at 4:00 PM of Friday, August 6, 2021. At the roll call for that
evening, near the lieutenant’s podium, was a plush toy raccoon with a coffee
can on its head, a gag teasing one of the officers who had been acknowledged by
PETA after rescuing a wild raccoon found in just that condition. Most of the
discussion at roll call involved the ins and outs of a new computer reporting
system that the department had just adopted and that many of the officers would
be using for the first time that night. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 297.0pt; text-indent: .5in;"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">As we set out in his cruiser after roll
call, Sean explained that Friday nights in Ramapo, the beginning of the Jewish
Sabbath, are expected to be quiet. Much of the town belongs to what the police
refer to as “The Community”: the patchwork of Hasidic and Modern Orthodox
Jewish groups that have settled in and around the village of Monsey,
which houses the Hasidic settlement known as New Square (i.e. New “Skver,” the shtetl
from which a former chief rabbi first led his followers in the last century). </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 297.0pt; text-indent: .5in;"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">The Community has all but displaced the
society of non-orthodox Jews among whom I grew up. The Pomona Jewish Center, a
Conservative synagogue in which many of my high school friends became bar
mitzvah, has been sold and converted into a Zoroastrian fire temple. Temple
Beth El, the Reform synagogue that I attended, has been razed and the property
converted into multi-family dwellings. Across the street from where Beth El
used to stand, Ramapo
Senior High School, my
alma mater, is in an advanced state of decay. Once one of the finest public
high schools in New York
state, now trees are growing through the broken bleachers on the athletic
field. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 297.0pt; text-indent: .5in;"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">The town is much changed since I last
lived there, and at times while Sean and I drove through on patrol I did not
recognize stretches which had been old haunts when I was a teen. One thing that
has not changed is the social and economic diversity of Ramapo as a whole.
Though the Community now accounts for a full half of the town’s population, the
rest of its residents form a vibrant mix of Haitian, Asian, and
Spanish-speaking communities. On the wealth scale Ramapo contains some of the wealthiest
families in America
and some neighborhoods that have persisted in poverty since I was a child. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 297.0pt; text-indent: .5in;"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Early signs pointed to an atypically busy
Friday night. Sean responded to a domestic disturbance call, a woman who, it
turned out, wanted the help of police in disciplining her son. As I waited in
the foyer and watched Sean and his colleagues deal with the situation patiently
and courteously, I had my first window onto another world. For the police, none
of the boundaries of privacy or intimacy that we ordinary citizens take for
granted apply. Their experience of living in a community is completely
different than almost any of its other residents.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 297.0pt; text-indent: .5in;"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">This was reinforced for me as I drove the
town later with Sean as my guide. “A teenager was shot and killed over there,”
he said, pointing to a makeshift memorial set up at a stop sign on a street
that looked almost identical to the one on which I grew up. I wondered what the
police could have told me about what went on in the houses in my neighborhood,
back when I was in grade school. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
most illuminating moment of the night for me was when we responded to a
distress call at a public housing project in one of the town’s low-income
neighborhoods. An older woman had been trying to contact her sister without
success. We arrived with another officer to find the woman waiting outside the
door of her sister’s apartment. Neighbors reported that they had not seen or
heard from the sister in several days.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other
officers arrived, including Lieutenant Dolan, the squadron commander. While we
waited for the building superintendent to bring a skeleton key, Sean made a
point of taking down the woman’s contact information. It was a keen instinct. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When
the super arrived, Sean and other officers entered the building as the Lieutenant
and I waited outside with the woman. The Lieutenant’s personal radio registered
a call for a medical team, and he ran in to join the others. Emerging from the
building a few minutes later, he urged the woman who had placed the distress
call to sit down. Her sister had passed away.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
moment was not loud or flashy. It would not have been deemed worthy of an
episode of <i>Cops.</i> But it was about as good an embodiment as one could ask
for of what the job of policing entails, and of what the police mean for our
society in the abstract.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>As
the woman began to weep and the officers around her consoled her, I was seized
by the distress of having intruded upon a stranger’s private grief, and having
little to offer by way of help or comfort. I realized that this is a small
taste of what the police deal with constantly. Much of the general discussion of
police work focuses on the risks officers face, but what distinguishes the job
more than danger is the virtual certainty that your working days will bring you
repeatedly into contact with people you do not know at some of the worst
moments of their lives. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That type of pressure requires a particular kind of temperament, skill
set, and training. It may seem a small thing, but think of how much worse the moment
would have been for the woman who had placed the call if Sean had not taken her
contact information <i>before</i> she had learned of the loss of her sister.
Extrapolate from that to a scenario in which a citizen, rather than grieving,
is confused, violent or even dangerous, and you can appreciate how much of a
difference the training and character of an individual police officer can make
to the life of a community.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In a more abstract sense, the scene encapsulated a basic truth about
police work: often the law needs to be enforced even when no law has been
broken. There will always be a need for some authority that can guarantee the
rights, privacy, and dignity of those who cannot do so for themselves. In this
sense, a civil society without police is more than a fantasy, it is an
impossibility.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moments like the one I
witnessed expose the moral and intellectual bankruptcy of calls to abolish the
police, or slogans such as “all cops are bastards.” </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>One
of the best opportunities the night afforded me was to spend time with Sean and
get a sense of his impressions of the job. Though he is fifteen years my
junior, we share much in common. Like me he grew up in Ramapo and studied
history in college, even working for a time as a teacher after graduation.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sean told me he loves his work, and
nothing I saw that night made me doubt that. When I asked him what aspect of
his career made him most proud, he spoke of his involvement with community
policing, especially his contributions to programs that educate children about
safety and civic life. When I asked him about his greatest regrets, he
described the many occasions on which he was confronted by teens who committed
serious crimes. This aspect of the job weighed heavily on his mind, and I would
be surprised if in this he is not very typical of many career police officers. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
the same way that police officers are confronted with tragedy on an almost
daily basis, in the natural course of their work they are guaranteed to be
asked to deal with the worst problems of the community at large. The point at
which a seventeen-year-old is holding a loaded handgun is a moment of total
social failure. There is no happy resolution to that crisis: the best that the
police can do is to work toward the least bad outcome. Here again character and
training make all the difference.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>All
of these aspects of police work explain why the current moment of tension is no
surprise. The police exist at a boundary where many of the problems and
pressures of our society converge, so it is no wonder that their work has the
potential to become politically fraught in the best of times, much less in a
period of rising tension and conflict. This is not to minimize the current
problem. My time with the Ramapo Police did not change my sense of the need for
police reform. But it did confirm me in an impression that had been building in
my mind for some time.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>We
ask police to combine some part of the expertise of a lawyer, a soldier, a
social worker, and an emergency medical technician. This obviously makes it a
job of above-average difficulty and skill, yet the average salary for police
officers is $67,000/year, the exact average of that for professional workers
generally. Opportunities for overtime pay can make a police career more lucrative
than average, but relying on overtime as an incentive and reward comes at a
cost. Is it fair to demand that an officer work overtime to attain her work’s
fair worth, and then expect that she will consistently give us “the least bad
outcome” when she is called upon to deal with the kinds of tragic social crises
that are part and parcel of the job?</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
the end we have to get beyond the narratives that cast police officers as
either heroes or villains. They are people, and as a society we need them to do
a difficult job. Any movement to improve the parameters of police work
nationwide thus must come at the problem from two directions at once. Reforms
to increase police accountability, such as body cameras and changes to rules
governing police immunity, are sensible in principle. But any program that
neglects the need to boost recruitment and improve the basic conditions of
police work is fundamentally misguided. </span></span></p>
<span class="d2edcug0hpfvmrgzqv66sw1bc1et5uqllr9zc1uha8c37x1jkeod5gw0nxhoafnmaigsh9s9d3f4x2emfe6kdd0rmau55g9wc8b282ybiv3no6dbjq4qci2qa3bd9o3vknj5qynhoo9gr5id"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: PMingLiU; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">I am not certain how far apart Danny and I were in our exchange on
Facebook in the spring, or whether my night on patrol brought us any closer. If
forced, I would guess that I remain slightly more enthusiastic about the idea
of police reform than he is. But of one thing I came away firmly certain: anyone
interested in police reform could do worse than going to the Town of Ramapo and studying what
they are doing right. </span></span>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-74874009948701739332021-05-18T00:10:00.003-04:002021-05-18T08:00:00.172-04:00Hamas Can Only Lose if Palestine Wins<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZhRwivIEK90jAqy4a_Y5y1mO_KA7OIbrbLvX-5hrHl-1EsVoaZSYIz-3brYXV5gz7uKRrP7lah3n4utX88qzFhgKjWCJj1QM-y2CCo-VcKwjOK9mslcvZ53mAjURyZBjR0nVt/s286/gaza.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="176" data-original-width="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZhRwivIEK90jAqy4a_Y5y1mO_KA7OIbrbLvX-5hrHl-1EsVoaZSYIz-3brYXV5gz7uKRrP7lah3n4utX88qzFhgKjWCJj1QM-y2CCo-VcKwjOK9mslcvZ53mAjURyZBjR0nVt/s0/gaza.jpg" /></a></div><br />The tragedy playing out in Israel-Palestine now is a witches' brew with many chefs. The nihilistic malice of Hamas of course has contributed. But the ludicrously cynical politics of the Trump and Netanyahu administrations share equal blame. The surreal destruction and mob violence feel like the beginning of the end.<p></p><p></p><p>The Netanyahu government obliged Hamas by providing an open wound into which salt might be rubbed. Encouraged by the absurd Trump-Kushner "peace plan" (neither a plan nor a design for peace), Netanyahu unleashed his ultra-religious allies to pursue their most gratuitously belligerent goals in East Jerusalem. The expulsion of Palestinian families from the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood is a calculated assault on any concept of equity, fairness, or good faith compromise. </p><p>The 200+ families in the targeted homes have lived there for more than seventy years, and are to be ejected on the strength of a 19th century deed of purchase. That this should be allowed in a nation that will not grant thousands of Palestinian refugees the right to return to homes from which they had been expelled by Israeli forces in Lydda and Ramle in 1948 makes a mockery of any notion of justice. </p><p>Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, a deputy-mayor of Jerusalem, summarized the principles being asserted by the Jewish settlers driving the expulsions quite succinctly: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/world/middleeast/evictions-jerusalem-israeli-palestinian-conflict-protest.html">“This is a...Jewish state. It is here to protect the Jewish people.”</a> In other words, the settlers seek to establish by open and blatant precedent (as opposed to tacit bias) that Israel is a nation in which only Jews will have the full protection of citizens. It is an ethno-nationalist vision ironically equivalent to Fascism. The message was not lost on Israel's Arab community, sparking the worst civic unrest between Jewish and non-Jewish citizens in the nation's history. </p><p>The tragedy is made doubly absurd by the fact that Netanyahu is abetting his followers in a game that they cannot ultimately win. Chaos has little but upside for Hamas. Acting out Palestinian rage wins
them political capital from some in the Arab community and opprobrium
from others in the Middle East and beyond. Either way, it forestalls
peace and keeps the wheel of conflict spinning, which is just as Hamas
desires. Other than attacks on its leadership, Hamas has little to fear
from Israel. It would be more expensive for Israel to re-occupy Gaza
than to deal with occasional rocket attacks, so Israel possesses little
leverage over Hamas's strategic decisions. </p><p>Hamas will continue to enjoy purchase in Palestinian society as long as its people are captive to despair, humiliation, and rage. The only way that Hamas can be stopped is if the rights and dignity of the Palestinian people are recognized. Whether that happens through (an increasingly untenable) two-state solution or the merger of Israel and Palestine into a single state with full citizenship for all people, the violence and death will continue until justice is achieved. It feels like the beginning of the end, the only question is: "of what?" We may be witnessing the beginning of despair and the end of all hope for peace. Let us pray rather that it is the end of delusion and the beginning of a path back to sanity. <br /></p><p><br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-67593342517148744282021-04-30T12:47:00.004-04:002021-05-01T14:00:56.970-04:00Joementum or "Joe Mama"?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR-KxDM8zoKWRjETnnQB8ndQ6YAezONev8RukKn8xZTu2sOjKVZL_UJl_-M0xCLZEY5aEJugeOR3tqVCrgvCaVCYX9F5KWagPETXO6tWJHR0SgIUuiz3Yn2TWt9IjosFbX7I-R/s2048/Bidenomics.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR-KxDM8zoKWRjETnnQB8ndQ6YAezONev8RukKn8xZTu2sOjKVZL_UJl_-M0xCLZEY5aEJugeOR3tqVCrgvCaVCYX9F5KWagPETXO6tWJHR0SgIUuiz3Yn2TWt9IjosFbX7I-R/s320/Bidenomics.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />President Biden's speech to Congress on Wednesday night left us with little doubt of his strategic thinking for the months between now and the midterm election of 2022. The Democrats have determined (in consultation with the Senate Parliamentarian) that three bills can be passed using the budget reconciliation process in this legislative calendar year. The first, the American Rescue Plan Act, has already been signed into law. On Wednesday night Biden laid out the parameters of two further major legislative initiatives: the American Jobs Plan and the American Families Plan. If the White House can maintain party discipline within the Democratic Senate caucus, both of those bills will pass out of Congress before next November, and will not require any alteration to the Senate filibuster rules to be enacted as law.<p></p><p> </p><p> This is clearly Biden's plan for the Congressional campaign of 2022, and it is admittedly a bold and potentially effective strategy. On the one hand he cannot be faulted as "radical" for pushing through legislation that would require a change to the Senate rules enacted on a razor-thin mandate. On the other, his three bills combined commit the federal government to a transformational level of spending: $5.5 trillion all told. If the programs these bills entail can be efficiently executed, it will effect the greatest expansion of the public sector and intensification of the role of government in the United States since the days of FDR and the New Deal. </p><p> </p><p>Biden is playing to his strengths as a long veteran of government, someone with deep networks of relationships in both the legislative and executive branches. The successful federalization of the Covid-19 vaccination program, which has more than doubled the promised pace of distribution, suggests that Biden's instincts might prove quite shrewd. Putting the government to work actually solving problems is an obvious way to restore the civic trust that has collapsed in recent years and thrown our politics into chaos. Beyond this, increasing spending and raising taxes is a natural path to redressing the spiraling wealth inequality that has festered for four decades and eroded social cohesion.</p><p><br /></p><p>While all of this makes good sense, the political outcomes that we may expect from a course of "Bidenomics" are impossible to predict. Biden's approval/disapproval ratio stands at roughly 55%/40%: the <i>exact inverse of his predecessor</i>. This despite the fact that virtually all of the component policies of his governing initiatives (modernizing the electrical grid, expanding access to child care and education, etc.) poll better than he does personally, typically enjoying 60-65% approval among the electorate at large. It would seem that for 40% of the electorate one fact about Biden trumps all others (pun intended): he is not <i>the other guy</i>. </p><p> </p><p>This is a strange and vexing state of affairs, but the experience of the past four years should have inured us to it. There is of course, the chance that some tangible effects of Bidenomics might sway hearts and minds. If recalcitrant citizens see their businesses thrive and their quality of life improve, perhaps they will give Biden some assent that they now withhold. But I would not bet on it. If death counts climbing into the hundreds of thousands from Covid-19 did not change a person's mind about <i>the other guy</i>, a boost in her 401K is not likely to shift her opinion about his successor.</p><p><br /></p><p>So what are we to expect, moving forward? It is likely that Democrats will lose control of one or both houses of Congress in 2022. It would be nice to think that Bidenomics will excite the Democratic base sufficiently to secure an extraordinary incumbent midterm victory, but no signs point to such a scenario. Biden's supporters are not any more moved to new opinions or enthusiasm than his opponents. The typical dropoff in Democratic turnout during a midterm election, in combination with gerrymandering and general demographic challenges are likely to yield predictable results. </p><p><br /></p><p>By the same token, however, the strange inertia that favors Republicans in 2022 is likely to favor Democrats, at least in the contest for the White House, in 2024. A 55/40 split going into a national presidential contest is a crippling disadvantage, even accounting for the exigencies of the Electoral College. We are always fighting the last war, so the public discourse is likely to imagine that 2024 will play out in ways similar to 2016 or 2020. But though the 55% of the electorate that currently approves of Joe Biden might be burnt out and apathetic, they don't suffer from amnesia. As polls open in November of 2024 they will remember very clearly everything that happened between January 20, 2017 and January 7, 2021. Will they be blithe about the prospect of four more years of <i>the other guy</i>? I would not bet money that I could not afford to lose on that notion.</p><p><br /></p><p>So gridlock is probably in the cards, but for how long? That is hard to say. An energized base could give control of Congress back to the Democrats in 2024. If Biden is still at the helm then, and has a slightly expanded majority in the Senate (53-55 seats rather than the current 50) he would most likely be amenable to a move against the filibuster, and then things could really get interesting. But will our politics take us there? Who knows? As long as 40% of the electorate remains wedded to an abstraction, predicting what specific policy path will lead us out of our electoral impasse is impossible. If we can get to the point where real robust regulatory change (a reform of health care, voting rights, or policing laws, for example, as opposed to primarily fiscal policy) is achievable, we might see new coalitions and movements form around concrete ideas. But how we get to that point is anyone's guess. <br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-38148969968290085532021-03-18T09:53:00.000-04:002021-03-18T09:53:40.508-04:00At the Crossroads<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2nc0RqBz3ppgsI37iLsWTsGpgMpkHnC-XHNztIz9mEEtsVAvP3qA4APzAu9SCZckT4SSPywmtksOnZ-N81WBh82iyMA114yyQlB-MtEiAv182xxQYwVJewCpa5UxfSdY6uOQb/s2048/john_kasich_at_dnc_-_joe_biden_youtube_1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1063" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2nc0RqBz3ppgsI37iLsWTsGpgMpkHnC-XHNztIz9mEEtsVAvP3qA4APzAu9SCZckT4SSPywmtksOnZ-N81WBh82iyMA114yyQlB-MtEiAv182xxQYwVJewCpa5UxfSdY6uOQb/s320/john_kasich_at_dnc_-_joe_biden_youtube_1.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />An ancient Chinese legend says that when the teacher Mo Di arrived at a crossroads he wept aloud, because a single misstep could result in an error of 10,000 miles. Mo Di's dilemma resembles the existential situation of American leaders right now, particularly that of President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Two basic strategies present themselves moving forward, and the wrong choice could be disastrous.<p></p><p><br /></p><p>With the passage of the CARES act, one of the most robust and progressive pieces of fiscal legislation in the nation's history, Democrats have staked a claim to major achievements that they can run on in the election of 2022 and beyond. If (as seems likely) that landmark piece of legislation will be followed by a major infrastructure bill passed by process of reconciliation, the Democrats will be able to take credit for using the mandate that voters gave them in 2020 to take bold action. The question that Democratic leaders must confront is whether those two pieces of legislation, in combination with executive actions such as a renewed commitment to the Paris Climate Accords and the WHO, will be enough. </p><p><br /></p><p>Why are the choices so stark and the stakes so high? On the one hand, the opportunities to overcome Republican obstruction absent more aggressive action will quickly expire. If and when an infrastructure bill passes, it will be the last piece of significant legislation that Joe Biden will have the opportunity to sign into law <i>unless the Democrats move to eliminate the filibuster</i>. Action on health care, the minimum wage, immigration, voting rights, law enforcement reform, penal reform, and a host of other urgent priorities will be roadblocked until either the filibuster is curtailed, the Democrats win sixty senate seats, or the Republicans become willing to reach a negotiated settlement on these issues of national importance (i.e. when hell freezes over). </p><p><br /></p><p>On the other hand, it is clear that the outcome of the next two electoral cycles will not merely decide the direction of foreign and domestic policy, but the fate of American democracy itself. The majority of Republican office holders have embraced the malignantly fallacious narrative surrounding the terrorist attack on the Capitol that transpired on January 6. If the GOP remains committed to the lie that the 2020 election was illegitimate or "stolen" and the terrorists of January 6 were "patriots," then their own rhetoric will compel them to dismantle the machinery of pluralistic democracy once they achieve consolidated control of Congress and the White House in 2024. Over the last five years the GOP has effectively become a party committed to the establishment of white supremacist oligarchy, and they will complete the process of transforming the US into such a polity if, given their current configuration, they receive any kind of mandate to rule, no matter how narrowly technical or demographically anti-majoritarian. </p><p><br /></p><p>The Democrats thus must beat the Republicans in 2024, not simply to save the economy or the environment, but to save democracy itself. Which of the roads before them leads to that end? The choice is enormously consequential.</p><p><br /></p><p>The Democrats could stop at the passage of the CARES act and an infrastructure bill and run on those achievements through 2024. This strategy has the advantage of providing voters with robust and tangible improvements to their quality of life without giving the Republicans much purchase for stirring up partisan division and anger. Fiscal legislation like the CARES act provides the political opposition with only limited opportunity for negative attacks: Republicans can only argue for the harm of specific provisions of the bill. A move to eliminate the filibuster, by contrast, would give GOP leaders a kind of rhetorical "blank check," empowering them to spin nightmare scenarios about what "radical Democrats" <i>plan to do </i>with the power that they "grabbed."</p><p><br /></p><p>If Democrats opt for a cautious strategy they might well elect to avoid the rhetorical trap that a move against the filibuster would establish. Historically the party in power can be counted on to lose seats in the midterm election, and since Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress are razor-thin, the loss of at least one chamber to the GOP may be a foregone conclusion. Since there is little to gain from further action electorally, it might be deemed wise to avoid taking on unnecessary liabilities.</p><p><br /></p><p>Two considerations argue against such caution. The first is that some minimum degree of legislative action is necessary to secure the integrity of the electoral process itself. Republican-controlled legislatures in twenty-eight states are moving to enact laws that will restrict voting rights, especially to low-income and minority constituencies that disproportionately vote Democratic. Unless Congress passes <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1/text">H.R. 1 (the "For the People" Act)</a> to curtail these voter-suppression drives, the GOP may be able to rig the system so thoroughly as to engineer an inevitable Republican victory in both 2022 and 2024. Such an outcome would not only deprive millions of Democratic voters of their franchise, but amplify the most malignant and anti-democratic tendencies within the GOP itself.</p><p><br /></p><p>A second principle that must factor into Democratic strategy is the future trajectory of the two-party system itself. The United States cannot survive in the long term if one of its two major political parties is committed to a fascist agenda. There are leaders in the GOP whose commitment to (small-d) democratic principles remains firm, but they are a minority who lack the power to set the course for the party as a whole. In order for Republicans like Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, and Larry Hogan to pilot their party away from the path of white supremacist oligarchy, a general restructuring must be effected in our electoral politics. For that to happen, the GOP must be drubbed in at least one future electoral contest much more thoroughly than occurred in 2020 or even in 2018.</p><p><br /></p><p>Republican leaders like Ron Johnson, Josh Hawley, and Ted Cruz, in endorsing the Big Lie about the January 6th terrorist attack, are effectively spreading the message that American democracy no longer works, and thus it must be replaced by a white supremacist oligarchy. In order to effectively counter that message, Democrats must enact policies that persuade voters of its opposite: democracy can and does work, and is thus worth preserving. Will the CARES Act and an infrastructure bill be enough to instill that confidence in a broad enough swath of the electorate to produce truly transformative electoral wins? </p><p> </p><p>Perhaps. But an alternative view would suggest that the Democrats have little to lose and everything to gain by "swinging for the fences." Moving to eliminate (or weaken) the filibuster will provide the Republicans with powerful short-term political ammunition, but it is the only way to clear the path toward meaningful change and robust action on urgent priorities. Moreover, though conventional wisdom might lead Democrats to give up the 2022 contest as "lost," the emergency of the moment calls for bold strategy. If Democrats retained or actually expanded their majorities in both chambers of Congress, such an outcome would be so unprecedented and alarming as to finally shock the Republican Party into a substantive change of course. Caution and conservatism rarely yields dividends in midterm elections. If the Democrats want to drive up turnouts and potentially reap big wins, it would behoove them to court controversy and generate buzz through audacious action</p><p><br /></p><p>I do not envy Democratic leaders as they plot a political course over the next weeks and months. Under the best of circumstances the political stakes are nerve-wrackingly high in the early months of a new administration. But since the outcome of the next two electoral cycles will ultimately decide the survival or extinction of American democracy, the pressures of the moment are excruciatingly intense. At such moments it is tempting for citizens to sit back and rely on the strategic wisdom of those in power. By piloting the CARES Act to implementation Joe Biden and his Democratic allies have earned a degree of confidence from voters. But given how high the stakes are, we should all remain politically engaged, since any path forward will require the active participation of an informed and conscientious citizenry to yield positive results. <br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-42552940288118499152021-02-14T14:13:00.002-05:002021-02-14T14:21:35.495-05:00Bellwether Mitch<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicFjh5UFx0yvG0qeY-as9y0JC8F9SPqX5AdiMPVjU7Fquh9Iav1ETTPDApk_owz9lt41IsFXY65yJoQh4qUbgPZKliaPRqDV1F2-lTagZTr_Vzi2E9UQXY5pE1yYzbz0DfD8tS/s1706/mcconnell.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1706" data-original-width="1706" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicFjh5UFx0yvG0qeY-as9y0JC8F9SPqX5AdiMPVjU7Fquh9Iav1ETTPDApk_owz9lt41IsFXY65yJoQh4qUbgPZKliaPRqDV1F2-lTagZTr_Vzi2E9UQXY5pE1yYzbz0DfD8tS/s320/mcconnell.webp" /></a></div><br />Mitch McConnell's behavior in the recent impeachment trial may seem bizarre. Why vote to acquit and then give a blistering speech condemning the criminal liability of the man you just let off the hook? But strange as such antics seem, they follow a very clear cynical logic that flows naturally from Mitch's political career up to this point. McConnell has demonstrated nothing in his years as leader of the GOP Senate caucus more conclusively than his absolute contempt for the collective intellect of the American electorate. <p></p><p> </p><p> He is counting on the foreshortened attention span of the American voter, and has prepared two alternative tactical options for use in 2022. If at that point Joe Biden's approval rating has fallen into the low 40's and the GOP seems nostalgic for the "good old days" of 2019-2020, he will emphasize his vote to acquit. If in the summer and fall of 2022 Biden's approval rating is in the mid-high 50's or low 60's and 2020 is a bad memory, Mitch will stress his scathing speech in condemnation of the "crimes" of January 6, 2021.In this way McConnell serves as a bellwether of the whole GOP. Mitch wants to be the Senate majority leader again, and thus has to be ready to tack in whichever direction the prevailing winds are taking the GOP come 2022.</p><p> </p><p>It is thus a good sign that he anticipates that there <i>might </i>be a repudiation of the last four years. Next January 6 there will be two types of ceremonies held to commemorate the anniversary of what transpired at the Capitol. All of the Democrats will be at the memorial services to mourn those who suffered on that day, especially the Capitol police officers who were killed, injured, or traumatized by the terrorist crowds. At least some Republicans will attend those ceremonies, <i>maybe </i>most of them. But not all of them. </p><p> </p><p>Some Republicans will declare January sixth a holiday and give it a name: "Patriot's Day" or perhaps even "Insurrection Day," (on the grounds that insurrection in the face of "tyranny" is no vice). They will gather for austere but uplifting ceremonies to commemorate the "great patriotic uprising" that took place to "stop the steal." What's-her-name and You-know-who will definitely be there. Will Ted Cruz attend? Josh Hawley? Again, it will all depend on Joe Biden's approval rating. </p><p> </p><p>Where Mitch McConnell will be on that day is anyone's guess. I doubt he will have the gall to go to a "Patriot's Day" celebration, but who knows? What is sure is that he will be doing a careful headcount of Republicans: are most of them at the mourning rites, or the celebratory festivals? He will shape his story about the impeachment trial on the basis of those numbers. The bright side is that if "pro-impeachment" Mitch emerges like the groundhog from his hole, it will be a sign that the tide of white supremacist nationalism is receding, and the threat to our democracy with it. But if "anti-impeachment" Mitch rises to greet us, the picture becomes much more dire. </p><p><br /></p><p>The very thorough case presented by the House managers in the impeachment trial has had a clarifying effect. Anyone who looked at the evidence that they presented, who watched, for example, the body-cam video of the Capitol police officer who lay supine and in cardiac arrest as the "MAGA"-hatted mob savagely beat him, cannot claim ambiguity any longer. If you approve of what happened on January 6, 2021, you no longer believe in the institutions of our democracy. </p><p> </p><p><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/by-declaring-victory-donald-trump-is-attempting-an-autocratic-breakthrough">Masha Gessen</a> described the situation of the USA this last fall using an analytical framework developed by the Hungarian sociologist Bálint Magyar, which divides the dissolution of democracy into three stages: "autocratic attempt," "autocratic breakthrough," and "autocratic consolidation." In history, for example, Hitler's deployment of Brown Shirts and use of propaganda in the early Weimar years corresponded to "attempt," his rise to the post of Chancellor constituted "breakthrough," and the Nazification of Germany post-1933 corresponded to "consolidation." For Gessen, everything we had experienced from November 8, 2016 to November 3, 2020 had constituted "autocratic attempt." The campaign to "stop the steal" that transpired between November 3, 2020 and January 6, 2021 was a window of potential "autocratic breakthrough." If the faction who had howled to "hang Mike Pence!" on January 6 had succeeded in halting the peaceful transition of power, autocratic breakthrough would have been achieved.</p><p> </p><p>What the impeachment trial shows and Mitch McConnell's prevarication confirms is that autocratic breakthrough has not been successfully evaded, only deferred. We hover on the precipice, we sit under the sword of Damocles. We are not one term, one month, or one week away from the dissolution of our democracy, we are one election removed from that end. The next time the MAGA faction captures the White House will be the last democratic election our Republic achieves. </p><p> </p><p>So watch Mitch. He will show us which way the GOP inclines. If he emphasizes his post-acquittal "fire and brimstone" speech in the lead up to the 2022 election, then the grip of the MAGA faction is loosening, and the danger to our democracy is receding. If he underscores his vote to acquit, the red-hatted mob is on the rise, and autocratic breakthrough draws nigh. </p><p> </p><p>This is not a call for malaise or despair, but for vigilance and vigor. Most of the country remains ready to give democracy a chance if it can be made to work. So let's make it work. If that can be achieved, if all of the improvements to people's lives that will keep Joe Biden's approval rating above 50% can be cultivated and preserved, the threat of autocracy won't be completely dispelled. We can, however, push the clock back, so that those who want to dismantle the Republic will not be perched on the cusp of autocratic breakthrough, but will be back at the first square of "autocratic attempt."<br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-91131156908367014342021-01-30T15:13:00.001-05:002021-01-30T15:13:25.392-05:00Fellow Democrats, Please Ignore What's-Her-Name<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdCYHrD3E6oSgJoUTBime0HJyPK2KPDnQeEpyBx4ZersO4yNMVUtMNHum50isFRQM1x5xt0I6Koco3U5YH_dj61NP82Z92Z3y2_7B7D8TBKSWTtYIznP13aYPJ1n2JdWZQs3YN/s715/WHN.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="645" data-original-width="715" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdCYHrD3E6oSgJoUTBime0HJyPK2KPDnQeEpyBx4ZersO4yNMVUtMNHum50isFRQM1x5xt0I6Koco3U5YH_dj61NP82Z92Z3y2_7B7D8TBKSWTtYIznP13aYPJ1n2JdWZQs3YN/s320/WHN.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />The current news cycle has been dominated by<i> sturm und drang </i>about a certain freshman member of Congress. While the Representative in question certainly purveys ludicrously toxic views and has been malignantly engaged on social media for several years, the current furor feels contrived. We have known that this person was headed to Washington for months now, her social media activities were a matter of public record. The current shock and awe is....curious.<p></p><p>To be fair, the events of January 6 have lent some real urgency to the situation. Talk of violence in the Capitol can no longer be treated as an abstraction. The new member's colleagues cannot be blamed for viewing her with suspicion, and insisting that her behavior be regulated. </p><p>But even allowing for a level of legitimate concern, the current moment of stridency is highly suspect and politically foolish. GOP voters sent this person to Congress out of the same impulse that has been gaining force on the political right for five years: a voracious desire to "own the libs" and a ravenous yearning for lulz at the expense of "the system." All of the current gnashing of teeth and rending of cloth plays directly into those pathological impulses. </p><p>Moreover, there is a degree of cynicism at play. Certain interests in both the Democratic Party and the media are casting about for a <i>bete noire</i> to replace the one that skulked away on January 20. This is understandable, but its being so does not make it wise or even acceptable. The Democrats do not need and cannot use their own version of AOC to serve as a whipping post. However much such theatrics may serve in the short term to distract some voters on the left, in the long run it can only detract from Democratic electoral prospects in 2022 and 2024.</p><p>Any and all attention given to What's-Her-Name (hereafter WHN) can only increase her celebrity and cachet among GOP base voters. The votes to expel her in the closely divided House do not exist. Attempts to do so will only set off guffaws from her supporters about the impotence of the libtard snowflakes. There are only two steps to take in confronting WHN:</p><p>1)If she tries to bring a gun into the Capitol, call the SWAT team.</p><p>2)Who were we talking about, again?</p><p>The Democrats live beneath the sword of Damocles. In the ordinary course of politics, given how thin their majorities are and the general trend of past midterm elections concerning the party in the White House, one would expect them to lose both the House and the Senate in 2022. If that happens and they have achieved nothing by way of alleviating the misery in which millions of Americans live (many of them since long before the pandemic began), the entire nation will suffer a calamity. </p><p>If the current Congress proves to be a "Do-Nothing Congress," not only will voters hand power back to the GOP, but they will make sure that they give it over to the most maliciously racist and authoritarian elements of the Republican Party. Their logic will be clear and incontestable: "We gave the Dems the House, the Senate, and the White House, and they did nothing. It must be because they are owned by Wall Street. Let's try the fascists. They may be lunatics, but they at least have the courage of their convictions."</p><p>Take heed, Democrats. You don't like Congresswoman WHN? How about Governor WHN? President WHN? That is what you are opening the door to if you allow yourselves to be distracted now. GET STUFF DONE. GET STUFF DONE NOW!!! Pass the $1.9 trillion relief package. Pass voting rights legislation. Create a public option to make health care more affordable. Raise the minimum wage. DO IT NOW, OR ELSE.</p><p>Could doing those things be politically risky? Could it require eliminating the filibuster? Might it cost you the election in 2022? Sure. WHO CARES? The alternative is DISASTER. In the face of such ludicrously asymmetrical risks there is only one choice. IGNORE WHN. GET STUFF DONE.<br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8493138.post-77288053698268946862021-01-15T12:15:00.003-05:002021-01-15T16:20:06.961-05:00An Open Letter to My Republican Compatriots Who Voted for Joe Biden<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL2qC4gEMNEF3-6M3t_6xDauDQqS5ePYZ8-T5FnIl98v22-9_sA_M89tqnqNZPjp8GlcLshAtREBfM0gmdN3lSk-lSpaDGN4jtbS8VH_qEW2sWDfF5C1v_Mht3nepKZlftalH4/s2048/Republicans+for+Biden.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1262" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL2qC4gEMNEF3-6M3t_6xDauDQqS5ePYZ8-T5FnIl98v22-9_sA_M89tqnqNZPjp8GlcLshAtREBfM0gmdN3lSk-lSpaDGN4jtbS8VH_qEW2sWDfF5C1v_Mht3nepKZlftalH4/s320/Republicans+for+Biden.webp" width="320" /></a></div><br />Dear Friends, Republicans who Voted for Joe Biden in 2020,<br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p> I write as a Democrat, a citizen, and a fellow American to thank you. You saved our Republic. You rescued the American experiment in democracy from destruction. That has been a fair supposition since November 3, but the terrible events of January 6 made that absolutely clear.</p><p> Why is that so? The numbers tell the tale. Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives received 3.9 million fewer votes than Joseph Biden on November 3. Those were <i>your </i>votes, my friends. That represents more than <i>half </i>of Joseph R. Biden's margin of victory in the last presidential election. </p><p> What would have happened if Joe Biden hadn't had your 3.9 million votes? Perhaps he would have lost the Electoral College. More likely than that and even worse, he would have <i>won the Electoral College by the slimmest of margins. </i></p><p><i> </i>If that had been the case, the past two months would have been much worse than what we have experienced. Though Donald Trump would still have lost the election, all of his fraudulent challenges to the integrity of the vote would have gained much more traction. Perhaps a handful of his court challenges would have produced recounts or delays. Perhaps a few dozen more election officials, emboldened or shaken by the closeness of the tally and the passion of the mob, would have falsified reports, lied about outcomes, or sabotaged tallies.</p><p><i> </i>If that had happened, all of the ugliness and violence we saw break loose at the Capitol last Wednesday would have happened much sooner, and would have been <i>much worse</i>. As large, angry crowds gathered to protest Donald Trump's moves to steal the election, the fascist criminals who perpetrated the attack on January 6 would have had their choice of dozens or hundreds of very soft targets. Instead of settling for storming a fortified federal building at the incitement of the President, they could have just brought their assault rifles and bump stocks to an open, public place and started murdering people in the name of "America."</p><p> By giving Joe Biden a clear and unimpeachable victory in both the popular vote and the Electoral College, you saved our nation from that awful eventuality. Future generations will praise your patriotism, wisdom, and foresight. We all owe you a debt of gratitude.</p><p> But the fight is not over yet. The fascists who attacked the Capitol still have shelter inside the machinery of the Republican Party. As long as Donald Trump controls the GOP, extremists will be able to piggyback on Republican politicians. </p><p> The problem is with the primary process. At this point (slightly) more than half of Republicans can see that Trump is a con man and a fraud. Unfortunately, the group that still believes Trump's lies is very passionate, very vocal, and very active. They can be counted upon to vote in Republican primaries in disproportionate numbers, thus all of the equivocation and civic cowardice on the part of GOP officials that gives aid to extremists is in deference to that cultist wing of the party.</p><p> The answer again lies with you, my friends. You must rise to the urgency of the moment. You must be as passionate and motivated in your wisdom and sobriety as the Trumpists are in their derangement. We need a Republican faction of the "radically sane" to take back the GOP and make it the Party of Lincoln once again. If you can manage that, it will not be an exaggeration to say that you have rescued America a second time.</p><p> I give you my thanks again, and extend you my very best wishes for the new year. Let us stride forward in the confidence that though we may disagree on matters of policy, we share a love of America and the democratic principles on which it is founded.</p><p><br /></p><p> Sincerely,</p><p><br /></p><p> Andrew Meyer<br /></p>Madman of Chuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12867538212499011319noreply@blogger.com2