Schrödinger's Trump

If the Trump presidency has taught us anything, it is that things can always get worse. The "Muslim ban," the Singapore and Helsinki summits, the separation of migrant families, and a litany of other disgracefully conceived and executed policies of the Trump administration each created the impression of a moral and professional floor, beneath which the nation could not possibly sink. Those impressions persistently proved out wrong.

Yesterday, with the President's edict-by-tweet announcing the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria, a new low was reached. So many aspects of this event were shocking and offensive that they are difficult to call to mind coherently, much less enumerate. Syria is one of the most sensitive strategic frontiers in the world. It sits at the crux of painstakingly constructed alliances and at the convergence of a complex tangle of threats to the national security of the United States. ISIS is only one of these threats, though at present perhaps the most urgently acute, and contrary to Donald Trump's blithe pronouncements, it has not been neutralized.

A withdrawal of US forces risks the descent of Syria into newly intense chaos, which in turn could undermine the peace and stability of Lebanon, Iraq, Israel, Turkey, and an expanding circle of nations throughout the Middle East and North Africa. Communities that have placed their trust in the US- separate Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq, the government in Baghdad, anti-Assad forces in Syria, Yazidis- would be abandoned to an uncertain and potentially horrific fate. The only global actors that stand to gain from a US withdrawal- Russia, Turkey, and Damascus- are hostile to American interests.  It may or may not be a coincidence that the Trump Organization has significant and lucrative business ties with two of these governments.

Even if the wisdom of a withdrawal could be argued (and it cannot), the execution of this policy would yet be a disgrace. Announcing a withdrawal over Twitter, without consulting Congress or any cabinet agency responsible for its execution, and without preparing answers to the host of complex questions arising naturally from even the contemplation of such a plan, is an act of criminal political malpractice. This gross negligence, combined with the obscene appeal to the shades of fallen US soldiers ("they are up there looking down on us, and there is nobody happier..."), mark this as a newly profane debasement of the presidency.

The US Constitution does not provide a clear legal definition of the class of infraction that merits the impeachment of a president. "High crimes and misdemeanors" could be virtually any form of transgression, the only force constraining the discretion of Congress being the political will of the voters. This is why the potential impeachment of Donald J. Trump is a problem structurally akin to that of "Schrödinger's Cat".

In the abstract, Trump's "withdrawal by Tweet" is a miscarriage of duty so grotesque as to merit removal from office several times over, and it is only the worst of a long list of similar transgressions. The popular speculation about what Robert Mueller's investigation might or might not uncover is moot. What we the American people have seen with our own eyes is sufficient. At this point, asking whether Donald J. Trump should be removed from office is like asking whether one should throw water on the bedroom drapes that have caught fire.

The problem of course, is that however clear the answer to such a question might be in the abstract, in the practical particular it remains difficult to resolve. A significant proportion of the American electorate wants to let the drapes continue to burn, and see what happens. More specifically, a critical mass of Republican primary voters continue to view Donald Trump as an effective leader, and will vote for or against GOP candidates at his direction. As long as that remains true, it is folly to expect any Republican lawmakers to defy Trump in any regard, much less to vote for his removal in an impeachment proceeding.

Thus, though the House of Representatives would be perfectly justified in passing a Bill of Impeachment against the publicly recorded misconduct of President Donald J. Trump, if roughly 40% of Americans cannot see what a disgrace he is right now, it is unlikely that any amount of evidence of criminal activity could ever persuade them to refuse him their support. Under those circumstances, any Bill of Impeachment, no matter how justified or well-evidenced, is bound to go down to defeat in the Senate (where a 2/3 majority must be reached for removal). As a country we are thus faced with a conundrum. Which is worse, allowing Trump to commit such criminal malpractice as he did yesterday without being formally censured or, having been formally impeached, to see his behavior officially condoned by an acquittal in the Senate? Call it the "Schrödinger's Trump" paradox: the impeachment of Donald J. Trump is simultaneously an absolute imperative and utter folly. True to his nature, Trump consistently leaves us with nothing but bad options.