Bellwether Mitch

Mitch McConnell's behavior in the recent impeachment trial may seem bizarre. Why vote to acquit and then give a blistering speech condemning the criminal liability of the man you just let off the hook? But strange as such antics seem, they follow a very clear cynical logic that flows naturally from Mitch's political career up to this point. McConnell has demonstrated nothing in his years as leader of the GOP Senate caucus more conclusively than his absolute contempt for the collective intellect of the American electorate. 

 

 He is counting on the foreshortened attention span of the American voter, and has prepared two alternative tactical options for use in 2022. If at that point Joe Biden's approval rating has fallen into the low 40's and the GOP seems nostalgic for the "good old days" of 2019-2020, he will emphasize his vote to acquit. If in the summer and fall of 2022 Biden's approval rating is in the mid-high 50's or low 60's and 2020 is a bad memory, Mitch will stress his scathing speech in condemnation of the "crimes" of January 6, 2021.In this way McConnell serves as a bellwether of the whole GOP. Mitch wants to be the Senate majority leader again, and thus has to be ready to tack in whichever direction the prevailing winds are taking the GOP come 2022.

 

It is thus a good sign that he anticipates that there might be a repudiation of the last four years. Next January 6 there will be two types of ceremonies held to commemorate the anniversary of what transpired at the Capitol. All of the Democrats will be at the memorial services to mourn those who suffered on that day, especially the Capitol police officers who were killed, injured, or traumatized by the terrorist crowds. At least some Republicans will attend those ceremonies, maybe most of them. But not all of them. 

 

Some Republicans will declare January sixth a holiday and give it a name: "Patriot's Day" or perhaps even "Insurrection Day," (on the grounds that insurrection in the face of "tyranny" is no vice). They will gather for austere but uplifting ceremonies to commemorate the "great patriotic uprising" that took place to "stop the steal."  What's-her-name and You-know-who will definitely be there. Will Ted Cruz attend? Josh Hawley? Again, it will all depend on Joe Biden's approval rating. 

 

Where Mitch McConnell will be on that day is anyone's guess. I doubt he will have the gall to go to a "Patriot's Day" celebration, but who knows? What is sure is that he will be doing a careful headcount of Republicans: are most of them at the mourning rites, or the celebratory festivals? He will shape his story about the impeachment trial on the basis of those numbers. The bright side is that if "pro-impeachment" Mitch emerges like the groundhog from his hole, it will be a sign that the tide of white supremacist nationalism is receding, and the threat to our democracy with it. But if "anti-impeachment" Mitch rises to greet us, the picture becomes much more dire. 

The very thorough case presented by the House managers in the impeachment trial has had a clarifying effect. Anyone who looked at the evidence that they presented, who watched, for example, the body-cam video of the Capitol police officer who lay supine and in cardiac arrest as the "MAGA"-hatted mob savagely beat him, cannot claim ambiguity any longer. If you approve of what happened on January 6, 2021, you no longer believe in the institutions of our democracy. 

 

Masha Gessen described the situation of the USA this last fall using an analytical framework developed by the Hungarian sociologist Bálint Magyar, which divides the dissolution of democracy into three stages: "autocratic attempt," "autocratic breakthrough," and "autocratic consolidation." In history, for example, Hitler's deployment of Brown Shirts and use of propaganda in the early Weimar years corresponded to "attempt," his rise to the post of Chancellor constituted "breakthrough," and the Nazification of Germany post-1933 corresponded to "consolidation." For Gessen, everything we had experienced from November 8, 2016 to November 3, 2020 had constituted "autocratic attempt." The campaign to "stop the steal" that transpired between November 3, 2020 and January 6, 2021 was a window of potential "autocratic breakthrough." If the faction who had howled to "hang Mike Pence!" on January 6 had succeeded in halting the peaceful transition of power, autocratic breakthrough would have been achieved.

 

What the impeachment trial shows and Mitch McConnell's prevarication confirms is that autocratic breakthrough has not been successfully evaded, only deferred. We hover on the precipice, we sit under the sword of Damocles. We are not one term, one month, or one week away from the dissolution of our democracy, we are one election removed from that end. The next time the MAGA faction captures the White House will be the last democratic election our Republic achieves. 

 

So watch Mitch. He will show us which way the GOP inclines. If he emphasizes his post-acquittal "fire and brimstone" speech in the lead up to the 2022 election, then the grip of the MAGA faction is loosening, and the danger to our democracy is receding. If he underscores his vote to acquit, the red-hatted mob is on the rise, and autocratic breakthrough draws nigh. 

 

This is not a call for malaise or despair, but for vigilance and vigor. Most of the country remains ready to give democracy a chance if it can be made to work. So let's make it work. If that can be achieved, if all of the improvements to people's lives that will keep Joe Biden's approval rating above 50% can be cultivated and preserved, the threat of autocracy won't be completely dispelled. We can, however, push the clock back, so that those who want to dismantle the Republic will not be perched on the cusp of autocratic breakthrough, but will be back at the first square of "autocratic attempt."