I genuinely don't envy Trump the choice that he faces in Iran. Bibi has very skillfully maneuvered him into a corner. I wish both Israel and the U.S. had better, more trustworthy leadership at this moment.
From the Israeli perspective, this war is certainly justified. It is only a "preemptive" war in the sense that it was not predicated on a direct attack against Israel by Iranian forces. But Iran was a key supporter of Hamas in the years before 10/7, and remained a staunch supporter of Hamas, both directly and through proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels of Yemen, in the immediate aftermath of 10/7 and up until the present moment. In that sense, this is a classic case of "you mess with the bull, you get the horns."
But the questions of whether this war is justified and whether it is strategically wise are very distinct questions. Israel can only benefit strategically if one of two things happens: 1)they bring the current government of Iran down; 2)they destroy Iran's nuclear program.
The first goal is not likely. If Saddam Hussein was not able to effect regime change in Iran after almost a decade of war and the loss of one million Iraqi lives, the Israelis are not likely to bring down the ayatollahs with bombs, however sophisticated they may be. The Iranian theocracy has enjoyed the support of a critical mass of its own people for more than four decades through successive crises, I doubt that this is the moment it will collapse.
The second goal of destroying Iran's nuclear program militarily is more tractable, but as The New York Times explains, will almost certainly require American assistance. The main Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow is buried too deeply underground for Israeli ordinance to reach. A commando raid might destroy the facility, but Bibi Netanyahu is a political animal, not a bold or effective military leader (he allowed 10/7 to happen, after all), so I would be surprised if he ordered such a raid and risked the political damage of seeing Israel's most elite soldiers killed or (even worse, from Bibi's perspective) captured and paraded on Iranian television in chains.
Thus the final military objective of destroying Fordow can only be achieved with US planes and bombs, which Bibi knew going into this. Will Trump allow himself to be strongarmed into backing Bibi's play? Should he? I honestly don't know for certain. I can see the merit of joining this military effort from the perspective of the U.S.- preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon is a worthwhile goal, given the history of Iran's policy in the Middle East.
But a military solution of the Iranian nuclear threat can only ever be temporary in the absence of regime change. If Fordow is destroyed, the Iranian's will rebuild their nuclear program, however many years it takes. More than that, destroying Iran's nuclear program militarily now is likely to make the Iranians determined to rebuild their nuclear program EVEN IF REGIME CHANGE OCCURS.
Those outside Iran who think that Iranians want a nuclear weapon because they are religious fanatics are seriously mistaken. The Iranians don't want a nuclear weapon because they are religious fanatics. They want a nuclear weapon because they are a nation that has been struggling for self-determination against the constant meddling of colonial and neocolonial powers such as Britain, the US, and the USSR. The only way to permanently quell the nuclear threat from Iran is to bring them back into the community of nations and provide the Iranian people with a framework of diplomatic relationships and guarantees that will safeguard their sovereignty.
I would not lay any bets on how this current crisis will end. I still fear that it will not end well, because character is destiny, and both Trump and Bibi are rotten to the core. I pray that I am wrong, and that in any case the people of Israel, Iran, and the US will all suffer as little as possible on the path to the end of this immediate conflict.
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